摘要
论文以DPSIR模型建立起黄山市旅游生态安全评价体系,并以障碍度模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型对其障碍因子和未来动态演变趋势进行分析。结果发现:在2013-2021年间,黄山市旅游生态安全水平整体上小幅上升,其旅游生态安全等级均隶属于敏感级和临界安全级。具体来看,黄山市旅游生态安全驱动力和压力子系统综合指数整体呈下降趋势,状态、影响和响应子系统综合指数整体呈上升趋势;压力和状态障碍度呈上升趋势,影响和响应障碍度呈现下降趋势,驱动力障碍度呈先上升后下降的变化趋势。按当前发展态势,黄山市未来9年旅游生态安全贴近度将逐年提升。
Based on DPSIR model,this study establishes the evaluation system of tourism ecological security in Huangshan City.It also analyzes the obstacle factors of Huangshan tourism ecological security with the obstacle degree model,and its future dynamic evolution trend with the GM(1,1)model.The findings indicate that:(1)from 2013 to 2021,the overall level of tourism ecological security in Huangshan City has slightly increased,with its tourism ecological security level classified as sensitive and critically safe;(2)specifically,the composite index of the driving forces and pressures subsystems of tourism ecological security in Huangshan City has shown a downward trend overall,while that of the state,impacts and responses subsystems has shown an upward trend;(3)the obstacle degree of pressures and state has shown an increasing trend,that of impacts and responses has shown a decreasing trend,and that of driving forces has shown a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing;(4)according to the current development trend,the proximity of tourism ecological security in Huangshan City is expected to increase year by year in the next nine years.
作者
张齐越
ZHANG Qi-yue(Gansu University of Political Science and Law,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070,China)
出处
《武汉商学院学报》
2024年第1期12-18,共7页
Journal of Wuhan Business University
基金
甘肃省研究生“创新之星”项目《安全基地型领导对员工越轨创新行为的影响——工作重塑的中介作用》(项目编号:2023CXZX-788)
关键词
旅游生态安全
熵权TOPSIS
障碍度模型
灰色预测模型
黄山市
tourism ecological security
entropy weight TOPSIS
obstacle degree model
grey prediction model
Huangshan City
