摘要
随着全球自由贸易阻力的加大,货物贸易出现明显的萎缩,虽然服务贸易受贸易摩擦的直接冲击较小,但是持续发酵的间接影响不容小觑。本文通过构建经济增长模型,从贸易摩擦视角研究不同贸易结构下中美服务贸易波动对中国经济产生的影响,并对影响路径进行了检验分析。研究发现,在中美贸易摩擦背景下,两国资本密集型服务贸易和技术密集型服务贸易均对我国经济增长具有促进作用,而劳动密集型服务贸易的影响并不显著。中美服务贸易波动可以通过技术溢出效应与投资促进效应来影响经济增长,但是并没有产生明显的就业促进效应。最后我们发现,贸易摩擦并未通过服务贸易对经济增长产生显著的影响,这表明美国单边贸易政策从服务贸易途径对我国经济发展的负面冲击相对较小。
With the continuous deepening of trade cooperation between China and the United States,trade frictions and conflicts have occurred frequently.In addition to the severe impact on trade in goods,it has also caused a certain degree of impact on changes in the service trade between China and the United States,which in turn affected our country’s economic growth.This paper constructs an economic growth model,empirically studies the impact of China-US service trade fluctuations on China’s economy under different trade structures from the perspective of trade friction,and tests and analyzes the path of China-US service trade affecting economic growth.The results show that:in the case of Ch0ina-US trade friction,the fluctuation of service trade between the two countries still plays a role in promoting China’s economic growth;according to different service trade structures,capital intensive service trade and technology intensive service trade of China and the United States both play a role in promoting China’s economic growth,while the impact of labor-intensive service trade is not significant;the fluctuation of China-US service trade can promote China’s economic growth.Finally,we find that trade friction does not have a significant impact on economic growth through service trade,which indicates that the unilateral trade policy of the United States has a relatively small negative impact on China’s domestic economic development.
出处
《新经济》
2023年第11期71-84,共14页
New Economy
关键词
贸易摩擦
中美服务贸易
经济增长
Trade friction
China-US Service Trade
Economic growth
