摘要
技术预见是识别未来优先发展技术的重要手段,技术预见成果能够有效支撑国家科技规划和重大决策制定,支撑企业战略布局和投资方向确定。技术预见活动成效的关键在于促进利益相关者达成一致共识,技术预见方法是促进不同利益相关者之间进行对话和交流并达成一致共识的有效手段,对技术预见实践效果具有重要影响。对技术预见方法进行了系统性回顾,对技术预见方法演化、方法分类和方法选用进行了回溯性分析,对技术预见实践的理论、模型以及方法的应用进行了概述。在此基础上,结合技术预见未来发展趋势,提出了短期内技术预见发展面临的挑战,指出了技术预见方法的发展方向。
Technology foresight is a systematic exploration of the long-term future of science, technology, economy,environment and society, with the aim of identifying strategic research areas and generic new technologies that are likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. At present, technology foresight has organically combined futurology, strategic planning and policy analysis, which provides important support for identifying the trend of technological development and selecting priority areas or directions for the development of science and technology. With the acceleration of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, major countries in the world have strengthened technological forward-looking research, identified the future development direction of key technologies, predicted potential disruptive technologies, and strengthened the layout of scientific and technological development. In recent years, Japan and South Korea have integrated Technology foresight into the process of public policy formulation, and Technology foresight has effectively supported national science and technology management and the allocation of innovation resources in Japan and South Korea.Technology foresight was large-scale employed in the US in the 40s of the 20th centuries. The development of technology foresight has gone through three generations. The first generation of technology foresight focuses on the internal driving force of technological development, and mainly carries out technology forecast activities;The second generation of technology foresight further considers demand factors and market factors on the basis of paying attention to the internal driving force of technology, and selects priority technology to maximize economic benefits. The third generation of technology foresight expands the consideration of technology for economic development to a broader social level, and links various factors such as social challenges and environmental changes with technological developm
作者
杨捷
陈凯华
穆荣平
YANG Jie;CHEN Kaihua;MU Rongping(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《科学学与科学技术管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第12期3-14,共12页
Science of Science and Management of S.& T.
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874179)
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院前沿探索计划项目(E2X1421Z)。
关键词
技术预见
方法
实践
回顾
展望
technology foresight
methods
practices
review
outlook
