摘要
技术预见对于把握科技发展趋势,识别科技革命与产业变革发展机遇,提升国家竞争力具有重要作用。与技术预见主要国家相比,中国在技术预见导向、技术预见领域划分、技术预见信息技术应用、技术预见参与群体和创新政策研究等方面均表现出一定的差距。通过梳理技术预见的起源与演进,分析全球技术预见实践的历程,揭示了技术预见成为世界潮流的演变过程及其背后逻辑。结合技术预见的方法组合、指导思想、组织与操作和成果应用等分析了日本、韩国、英国、德国和俄罗斯近年来的典型实践案例,总结并提出了国外技术预见发展趋势。未来一段时间内,技术预见将围绕提高技术预见质量,提高技术预见效率,构建社会愿景和系统性预见4个方向发展。最后,结合中国技术预见现状,提出中国技术预见能力建设的系列建议。
Technology foresight has become a major social science and technology activity in the world to predict technology trends, choose key technology development directions and take optimization actions for the countries or regions. At present, the capability of the China’s scientific and technological innovation continues to strengthen, and the number of the leading technology in the world continues to increase. In addition, China’s economic development has entered a new normal phase that a moderate slowdown in economic growth. Under the background, it is important on the current technological innovation and technology development to foster new drivers of economic growth and to achieve high economic quality and efficiency upgrading. Thus, an urgent demand to identify the direction of future technology development was required. Technology foresight research has important practical significance for continuously promoting the development of scientific and technological innovation in our country.Compared with the major countries of technology foresight in the world, China’s technology foresight research presents the following shortcomings:(1) Technology foresight research on social vision and future needs is simple and shallow;(2) Technology foresight result is weak to use for the domain division as a guideline to develop the technology;(3) The application of the information technology to support the technology foresight practice is uncommon;(4)Delphi survey experts in the Technology foresight are relatively single;(5) Technology foresight result to support the innovation development policy formulation is insufficient;(6) Technology foresight organizations are relatively scattered and the technology foresight practice lacks periodicity.This study on foreign practical experience research of technology foresight revels the practical details on the foreign technology foresight by the cases study, and analyzes the effect of technology foresight on the social experiment implementation. This research can not only enrich m
作者
杨捷
陈凯华
YANG Jie;CHEN Kaihua(Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《科学学与科学技术管理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期48-63,共16页
Science of Science and Management of S.& T.
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71874179)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA101)
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长基金A类项目(Y8X1031Q01)。
关键词
技术预见
国际经验
国际趋势
演化与启示
technology foresight
international experience
international trends
evolution and enlightenment