摘要
面向防灾减灾能力、孕灾环境孕险性实际条件下区域旱灾风险定量评估与区划等自然灾害风险防灾减灾关键问题,应用计算思维、系统科学多学科交叉的研究途径,从风险传导角度探讨了区域旱灾风险物理成因机制,阐述了面向致灾机理的区域旱灾五要素系统结构、基于链式传导的旱灾风险六要素系统结构,探讨了区域旱灾实际风险的概念、由旱灾脆弱性连接干旱与损失变量间关系的因旱致灾机理、连接干旱危险性关系与损失风险关系的旱灾风险传导机理、定量评估方法及其主要应用模式,在自然灾害风险评估中具有推广应用前景。
Facing the problems of natural disaster risk prevention and mitigation such as regional drought risk quantitative assessment and zoning under the actual conditions of the disaster environment and disaster prevention and reduction capability,we discusse the physical process of regional drought risk transmission,expound the structure of the five element system of regional drought oriented to the disaster causing mechanism and the six element system of drought risk based on chain transmission,and probe into the concept,quantitative evaluation method and main application modes of the actual risk of regional drought expounds the five element structure of drought system and the three element chain transmission structure of regional drought risk based on the six element drought risk system,and discusse the concept,the drought-induced disaster mechanism connecting the relationship between drought and loss variables,and the drought risk transmission mechanism connecting the relationships between hazard and loss risk by drought vulnerability,quantitative evaluation method and main application modes of regional drought risk with the prospect of popularization and application by using the interdisciplinary research approach of computational thinking and system science.
作者
金菊良
周亮广
蒋尚明
周婷
崔毅
白夏
张宇亮
JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;JIANG Shangming;ZHOU Ting;CUI Yi;BAI Xia;ZHANG Yuliang(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Hefei 230088,China;School of Engineering,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期1-6,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2240223,52109009)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2008085ME158,2108085QE254)。
关键词
旱灾实际风险系统
定量评估
应用模式
三元链式传递结构
计算思维
actual risk system of drought
quantitative assessment
application mode
chain transmission structure of ternary relation
computational thinking
