摘要
为客观准确地评估区域旱灾风险,依据半偏联系数思想构建了四元联系数的迁移率矩阵,以此来修正四元联系数分量,同时提出了随样本指标变化而变化的差异度系数计算方法,计算了四元联系数中的差异度系数,构建了基于半偏联系数和动态差异度系数的区域旱灾风险评估方法,在亳州市的应用结果表明:2008-2020年,亳州市旱灾风险系统中的危险性子系统基本处于轻险和中险两种状态,其中单位面积水资源占有量和土壤类型是脆弱性指标;暴露性子系统处于轻险和中险两种状态,其中人口密度和耕地率是脆弱性指标;灾损敏感性子系统基本处于微险状态,其中农业人口比例是脆弱性指标;抗旱能力子系统处于中险状态,其中水库调蓄率、单位面积现状供水能力、单位面积应急浇水能力和节水灌溉率是脆弱性指标;亳州市旱灾风险综合系统处于轻险和中险两种状态,并且整体变化趋势从中险向轻险发展。本文联系数值法和半偏减法集对势方法的评估结果基本一致,并且联系数值法的计算结果更加稳健、可靠,具有推广应用前景。
In order to evaluate the regional drought risk objectively and accurately,the transfer rate matrix of quaternion connection numbers is constructed based on the idea of semi-partial linkages,which is used to correct the quaternion connection number components.At the same time,a method for calculating the difference coefficient that varies with the changes in sample indicators was proposed,and the difference coefficient in the quaternion connection number was calculated.A regional drought risk assessment method based on semi partial connection coefficient and dynamic difference coefficient was constructed.The results of the application in Bozhou City show that the risk subsystem in the drought risk system of Bozhou City from 2008 to 2020 is basically in two states of light and medium risk,of which water resource possession per unit area and soil type are the vulnerability indicators.The exposure subsystem is at both light and medium risk from 2008 to 2020,with population density and arable land ratio as indicators of vulnerability.The disaster loss sensitivity subsystem is basically in a minimally hazardous state from 2008 to 2020,with the proportion of the population in agriculture as a vulnerability indicator.The drought resistance subsystem was in a medium risk state from 2008 to 2020,with reservoir regulation and storage rate,current water supply capacity per unit area,emergency watering capacity per unit area,and water-saving irrigation rate being vulnerability indicators.From 2008 to 2020,the annual comprehensive system of drought risk in Bozhou City is in the state of light risk and medium risk,and the overall trend of change is from medium risk to light risk.In this paper,the evaluation results of the linked numerical method and the semi-partial subtractive set of potential methods are basically consistent,and the calculation results of the connection numerical method are more robust and reliable,which has the prospect of popularization and application.
作者
陈浩
金菊良
崔毅
张诗懿
周亮广
刘凌
蒋尚明
CHEN Hao;JIN Juliang;CUI Yi;ZHANG Shiyi;ZHOU Liangguang;LIU Ling;JIANG Shangming(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Hefei 230088,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2024年第2期25-35,共11页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52109009,U2240223)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2108085QE254)。
关键词
旱灾风险评估
半偏联系数
联系数分量
动态差异度系数
drought risk assessment
semi-partial coupling coefficient
connection number component
dynamic difference coefficient
