摘要
区域旱灾风险评估是连接旱灾风险科学认识与防范实践的核心环节,一直是旱灾风险防御理论和实践研究领域的前沿热点和难点,是支撑区域水利高质量发展亟需解决的关键科技问题。针对实际旱灾风险评估中存在的概念不清晰、方法适用条件有约束、风险定量计算与物理解析相分离等问题,从评价对象符合风险评价目标关系程度的角度,研究指出了旱灾风险综合评价和旱灾风险定量评估是目前旱灾风险评估研究的主要途径,辨析了其中旱灾风险系统、旱灾风险综合评价、旱灾风险定量评估等若干概念问题,探讨了单指标评价函数构建、指标权重确定、综合指标评价函数构建等若干方法问题,以进一步推动旱灾风险评估理论和实践的深入发展。
Regional drought risk assessment is the core link connecting scientific understanding and prevention practice of drought risk,and has always been a cutting-edge hot and difficult point in the research field of drought risk prevention theory and practice.It is an important issue supporting the high-quality development of regional water conservancy.In view of the problems existing in the actual drought risk assessment,such as unclear concepts,constrained application conditions of methods,and separation of risk quantitative calculation and physical analysis,from the perspective of the degree to which the assessment object conforms to the relationship between the risk assessment objectives,it is concluded and analyzed that comprehensive assessment of drought risk and quantitative assessment of drought risk are the main ways of drought risk assessment research at present.Moreover the drought risk system several conceptual issues such as comprehensive evaluation of drought risk and quantitative evaluation of drought risk are explored,including the construction of single index evaluation functions,determination of index weights,and construction of comprehensive index evaluation functions,in order to further promote the in-depth development of drought risk assessment theory and practice.
作者
金菊良
周亮广
崔毅
蒋尚明
吴成国
周戎星
JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liangguang;CUI Yi;JIANG Shangming;WU Chengguo;ZHOU Rongxing(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Hefei 230088,China)
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期1267-1276,共10页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
关键词
旱灾风险定量评估
旱灾风险综合评价
评估概念
评估方法
quantitative assessment of drought risk
comprehensive evaluation of drought risk system
assessment concept
assessment method
