摘要
目的探究自然灾害情境下卫生系统时间序列的有序性,分析卫生系统韧性的演化规律。方法根据信息熵原理,基于灾难性医疗需求激增情境下卫生系统韧性评价框架,计算卫生系统在自然灾害情境下的熵流值,对我国2010—2019年卫生系统进行实证分析,分析卫生系统应对自然灾害的长期变化趋势。结果2010—2019年期间地震造成的人员伤亡数权重占据压力型正熵流支配地位,为0.4611。10年间支持型负熵流年份信息熵呈下降趋势;压力型正熵流年份信息熵虽略有波动,但总体呈上升趋势,2016年熵流值为各年份中的最大值,为0.7493;2014年熵流值为各年份中的最小值,为0.6475;2010—2019年历年支持型负熵流绝对值均大于压力型正熵流,总熵流均为负值;卫生系统扰动系数k总体呈波动式发展。结论我国卫生系统整体处于有序状态,卫生系统具备一定韧性;应完善应急医疗物资建设,保证卫生资金投入的可持续性,加强应急人才队伍建设,在各方面综合作用下实现卫生系统韧性的提升。
Objective To explore the orderliness of the time series of the health system in the context of natural disasters,and to analyze the evolutionary law of the resilience of the health system.Methods Based on the principle of information entropy and based on the health system resilience evaluation framework under the scenario of catastrophic medical demand surges, the entropy flow value of the health system in the context of natural disasters was calculated, and the empirical analysis of the health system in China from 2010 to 2019 was carried out to analyze the long-term trend of disasters of the health system′s response to nature.Results The weight of the number of casualties caused by earthquakes during 2010 to 2019 dominated the pressure-type positive entropy flow, which was 0.4611. The information entropy of the support-type negative entropy flow showed a downward trend during the 10-year period;the pressure-type positive entropy flow year had a slight information entropy. Fluctuates, but the overall trend is upward. The entropy flow value in2016 is the maximum value in each year, which is 0.749 3;the entropy flow value in 2014 is the minimum value in each year, which is 0.647 5;the absolute value of the supporting negative entropy flow in the years 2010-2019 is greater than the pressure-type positive entropy flow, and the total entropy flow is all negative;the health system disturbance coefficient k develops in a fluctuating manner.Conclusion The overall health system in China is in an orderly state, and the health system has a certain degree of resilience. It is necessary to improve the construction of emergency medical supplies, ensure the sustainability of investment in health funds, strengthen the construction of emergency personnel, and achieve the enhancement of the resilience of the health system under the comprehensive effect of various aspects.
作者
王冰洁
宁宁
刘莹
张宁
WANG Bingjie;NING Ning;LIU Ying;ZHANG Ning(College of Health Management,Harbin Medical University,Harbin Heilongjiang 150081,China)
出处
《中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志》
2022年第9期1121-1125,共5页
China Journal of Emergency Resuscitation and Disaster Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71874044
71473065)。
关键词
自然灾害
卫生系统韧性
信息熵
Natural disasters
Health system resilience
Information entropy
