摘要
市域铁路是城市中心城区连接周边城镇组团及其城镇组团之间通勤化、快速度、大运量轨道交通系统,介于城市轨道交通与国铁之间,是目前我国交通发展重要领域之一。本文依托《浙江省都市圈城际铁路二期建设规划》(2017-2022)以及市域铁路客流预测研究课题,通过分析宁波都市圈城市发展形态、线网规划,明确宁象线功能定位、客流构成及研究范围;基于宁波市域手机出行数据,采用四阶段法,并单独分析宁象间城际客流以此对四阶段模型予以约束,得出最终预测结果。经预测,该线城市与城际客流比约为0.82∶0.18,以城市客流为主,符合宁波都市圈市域铁路网络形态及本线功能定位。该线客流预测已通过建设规划客流专题专家评审,结论基本可信。
Suburban railway is a commuted,high-speed and large volume rail transit system connecting the central urban area and surrounding cities.It is between urban rail transit and national railway,and it is one of the important fields of transportation development in China.Based on the research of the Second Round Construction Planning of Zhejiang Metropolitan Area Intercity Railway(2017-2022) and the research topic of suburban railway passenger volume prediction,the paper determines the functional positioning,passenger flow composition and research scope of Ningbo-Xiangshan Line by analyzing metropolitan’s development form and line network planning.Then using four-stage method and the mobile data in Ningbo to separate analyze the intercity passenger flow,which can constrain the four-stage model,and obtaining the final prediction results.It is predicted that the proportion between city passenger volume and intercity passenger volume is 0.82∶0.18,which means the main passenger flow is city passenger volume.The proportion conforms to the line functional positioning and the metropolitan structure.The prediction results has passed the experts evaluation of the construction planning passenger flow,and the conclusion is basically credible.
作者
彭赛
PENG Sai(China Railway Shanghai Design Institute Group Co.Ltd.,Shanghai 200070,China)
出处
《铁道建筑技术》
2022年第6期117-120,175,共5页
Railway Construction Technology
基金
中铁上海设计院集团有限公司科研项目(20-14)。
关键词
市域铁路
宁波都市圈
手机信令
城际客流
预测
suburban railway
Ningbo metropolitan area
mobile data
intercity passenger flow
prediction
