摘要
为了提高城市轨道交通客流预测的可靠性,对目前中国采用的预测方法进行了分析,建立了通勤出行的生成-分布共生模型来预测高峰小时的出行发生(吸引)及分布,并基于综合交通网络提出了方式划分与分配组合模型,以西安地铁3号线为例,进行了方式划分与路径分配的联合应用。结果表明:改进后的模型能有效地进行轨道交通客流预测;西安地铁3号线初、近、远期的全日客运量分别为39.00×104人次、74.76×104人次、106.08×104人次;初、近、远期的高峰小时单向最高断面流量分别为1.69×104人次、3.08×104人次、3.75×104人次。
In order to improve the reliability of urban rail transit volume forecasting,the forecasting methods used at present in China were analyzed,the trip generation-distribution symbiosis model for commuting trip was built to forecast trip production and attraction and trip distribution in peak-hour.Based on an integrated transport network,the combined model of mode split and traffic assignment was built.The improved model is applied to Xi＇an metro line 3 as an example.The results indicate that the improved model can estimate the passenger flow effectively.The passenger volume in day of Xi＇an metro line 3 are 39.00 million at preliminary stage,74.76 million at short-term stage and 106.08 million at long-term stage.The peak hour directional max point volumes at these three stages are 1.69 million,3.08 million and 3.75 million.2 tabs,5 figs,12 refs.
出处
《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期69-74,共6页
Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
陕西省自然科学基金项目(2007E226)
关键词
交通工程
轨道交通
四阶段法
出行生成-分布共生模型
方式划分与分配组合模型
traffic engineering
urban rapid rail transit
four-steps model
trip generation-distribution symbiosis
combined model of mode split and traffic assignment
