摘要
研究目的:客运专线立项的重要依据是预测运量,同时运量预测还是客运专线经济效益计算的重要基础。因此,迫切需要提出一套铁路客运专线运量预测的模型方法,用以指导铁路客运专线项目建设。研究结论:预测与铁路客运专线竞争的交通方式的基线运量是进行转移运量预测的基础,基线运量预测一般采用回归分析和延伸性预测等方法进行。利用时间价值模型预测转移运量,利用引力模型的微分形式预测诱发运量、客运专线预测运量应是转移运量和诱发运量两项预测运量之和,并可据此计算出线路不同区间的客流密度,本预测方法可用于指导铁路客运专线项目运量的预测工作。
Research purposes： Predicting traffic volume is the important base for making a proposal to construction of railway passenger dedicated line and it is also the important base for making evaluation of the economic benefits of the line, so it is necessary to do the research on the method of establishing model for predicting the traffic volume of passenger dedicated line for the purpose of guiding construction of passenger dedicated line.
Research conclusions：Predicting the base - line traffic volume of the other traffic mode competing with the passenger dedicated line is the base of prediction of transfer traffic volume. General speaking, the base - line traffic volume is predicted with regression analysis method and extensive prediction method. The transfer traffic volume can be predicted by adopting time value model and the induced traffic volume can be predicted with the differential form of gravitation model. The predicted traffic volume of passenger dedicated line should be the sum of transfer traffic volume and induced traffic volume and based on which the density of the passenger flow in the different sections can be calculated, so this method can be used for prediction of traffic volume of passenger dedicated line.
出处
《铁道工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2008年第5期89-92,96,共5页
Journal of Railway Engineering Society
关键词
铁路客运专线
客运量
预测
railway
passenger dedicated line
passenger volume
prediction
