摘要
随着中国碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出,光伏发电逐渐成为推动低碳转型的重要途径。通过开展中国光伏发电的时空分布、竞争格局及减排效益研究,本文力求为中国“双碳”目标的落实、光伏产业的可持续发展提供量化支撑及政策建议,得出主要结论如下:(1)2012—2020年,光伏装机总量从624.8万kW增长到25317.0万kW,以集中式电站为主导;(2)山东、江苏、安徽、河南、山西等地区呈现高—高自相关特征,贵州等地区呈现高—低自相关特征;(3)电力消费量、碳排放量、科研投入为装机量增加的正向驱动因素,科技投入对相邻省份的装机量增加同样具有正向驱动效应;(4)中国现有光伏装机的年均减排效益约为2.0亿t,到2030年累计可以达到19.2亿t,对碳达峰、碳中和目标的落实具有重要推动作用。
Since China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals were put forward,photovoltaic power generation has gradually become one of the important fields to accelerate low carbon transition.Through the analysis of spatio-temporal distribution,competitive development and emission reduction of China's photovoltaic power generation,the main conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)From 2012 to 2020,the total installed photovoltaic capacities increased from 6.25 million kW to 253.17 million kW,dominated by centralized power stations.(2)Regions including Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui,Henan,and Shanxi showed a high-high autocorrelation,while regions such as Guizhou showed a high-low autocorrelation.(3)Electricity consumption,carbon emissions,and R&D investment were the positive driving factors for the growth of photovoltaic installed capacities,and R&D investment had a positive impact on the growth of photovoltaic installed capacities in neighboring provinces.(4)The potential emission reduction benefits per year of China's existing photovoltaic installations could almost reach 2.0E+08 tons and the accumulated emission reduction benefits could reach 19.2E+08 tons by 2030,revealing significant emission reduction potentials for promoting the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
作者
韩梦瑶
熊焦
刘卫东
HAN Meng-yao;XIONG Jiao;LIU Wei-dong(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期1338-1351,共14页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42042027,41701135)
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010102)
关键词
光伏发电
时空分布
竞争格局
减排效益
photovoltaic power generation
spatio-temporal distribution
competitive development
emission reduction
