摘要
电力部门一直是中国碳排放的主要来源之一。燃煤电厂作为运行寿命长达30~40 a的能源基础设施,一旦建成投产将锁定大量碳排放,造成高碳排放路径锁定,影响中国未来减排目标的实现和低碳转型。文章利用最新官方和国际机构统计数据,改进了电力部门锁定排放的核算方法,考虑六类煤电机组每年新增规模、发电小时数及机组寿命的动态变化,核算不同情景下在运以及处于规划建设阶段燃煤发电机组的锁定碳排放,并评估其对中国电力部门低碳转型的影响。结果表明:①中国存量煤电机组普遍年轻,截至2018年平均加权服役年限不到12 a,按照现有煤电机组预期寿命自然退役且“十四五”之后不再新增煤电情况下,2040年前中国煤电碳排放将一直保持在较高的水平上。②中国燃煤机组锁定碳排放总量为142.0(83.6~187.0)Gt CO 2,截至2018年已实现的累积锁定排放为39.7Gt CO 2,剩余的锁定排放将达到102.3(43.9~147.3)Gt CO 2。③若只关注年度排放,中间道路情景下中国电力部门在2050年以后能够满足全球2℃目标的要求,但从累积排放看,中国电力部门自2040年起就超过了部门碳预算的上限。④控制新增煤电规模、缩短燃煤机组服役年限、减少年发电小时数等,均能有效降低中国燃煤机组锁定排放,但也可能带来高昂的成本。中国需要尽快研究制定煤电有序退出路线图,在逐步淘汰煤电的同时避免资产搁浅和相关从业人员失业给经济和社会造成巨大冲击,最终实现电力部门公平的低碳转型。
Coal power sector has been one of the main sources of China’s carbon emissions.As part of China’s fossil-fuel infrastructure with a long life expectancy of 30 to 40 years,coal-fired power plants will continuously generate CO 2 emissions for decades once they are built,thus leading to a huge carbon lock-in,and affecting China’s future emission reduction targets and low-carbon transformation.By applying the latest data from official statistics and international databases,this paper refined the accounting method of committed emissions with dynamic parameters,namely newly installed capacity,expected lifetime and capacity factor.Then three scenarios based on different combinations of future changes of these parameters were set.The committed emissions under different scenarios were calculated and compared with sectoral carbon budgets of the global 2℃target,and policy implications for long-term mitigation targets were assessed.The results show that:①China’s existing coal-fired generators are generally young,with a weighted average age of less than 12 years in 2018.If those power plants retire in line with the expected lifetime and no new generators will be installed after 2025,the CO 2 emissions of China’s power sector will remain at a high level before 2040,when there would be a steady decline.②Total committed emissions of China’s coal-fired generators installed from 1993 to 2020 will reach 142.0(83.6~187.0)Gt CO 2,with 102.3(43.9~147.3)Gt CO 2 remaining.③From the perspective of annual emissions,China’s power sector can roughly meet the mitigation target of 2℃after 2050 under the current trajectory.However,the cumulative emissions would substantially exceed the sectoral carbon budgets during the period.④Mitigation options including eliminating newly installed power plants,premature retirement,decreasing annual utilization hours,and CCS retrofitting,might cause huge costs or even trigger social-economic risk without well-designed policies.The research highlights the significance for China to fo
作者
张小丽
崔学勤
王克
傅莎
邹骥
ZHANG Xiao-li;CUI Xue-qin;WANG Ke;FU Sha;ZOU Ji(School of Environment&Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第8期31-41,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“中国电力部门锁定排放及中长期低碳发展路径研究”(批准号:18XNH035)
能源基金会资助课题“中国煤电成本分析与风险评估”(批准号:G-1910-30513)。
关键词
燃煤发电
锁定排放
煤电淘汰
碳预算
coal-fired power plant
committed emission
coal phase-out
carbon budget
