摘要
随着分布式光伏在配电网的渗透率不断上升,其出力波动将成为调度运行中不可忽略的一项不确定因素。基于同一地区光伏出力变化的相关性,提出一种基于空间相关性的分布式光伏出力预测方法。先对同一地区集中式、分布式光伏出力历史数据做无遮归一化,以无遮系数表征光伏出力不确定性;再由K-means聚类方法对天气情况分类,建立基于Copula函数的各类天气工况下光伏出力的相关性模型;最后根据集中式光伏出力信息实现分布式光伏出力预测。以我国北部某城市光伏电站数据为算例,验证了该方法的有效性。
With the increasing proportion of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) power in distribution network, the fluctuation of its pow er output w ill become a non-negligible uncertain factor in pow er grid dispatch and operation. On the basis of the correlation of photovoltaic pow er generation in one region,a prediction method for distributed photovoltaic output is proposed on the basis of spatial correlation. Firstly,the historical data of centralized and distributed photovoltaic output in the same region are normalized to uncovered coefficient w hich represents the randomness of photovoltaic output.Then,the w eather conditions are classified by K-means clustering. According to Copula theory,the correlation model of photovoltaic output under various w eather conditions is established. Finally,the distributed photovoltaic output is predicted according to the information of centralized photovoltaic output. The validity of the proposed method is verified by using an example of a photovoltaic pow er station in a city of northern China.
作者
张家安
王琨玥
陈建
郭凌旭
黄潇潇
范瑞卿
李志军
ZHANG Jiaan;WANG Kunyue;CHEN Jian;GUO Lingxu;HUANG Xiaoxiao;FAN Ruiqing;LI Zhijun(School of Artificial Intelligence,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China;State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company,Tianjin 300010,China)
出处
《电力建设》
北大核心
2020年第3期47-53,共7页
Electric Power Construction
