摘要
工业化和城镇化的快速推进,加之人口老龄化,导致我国农业劳动力老龄化趋势愈发突出。未来谁来种地?为了回答此问题,将我国农业劳动力供给现状进行国际比较分析并探讨应对策略。从农业劳动力的年龄、性别和受教育程度三个方面分析我国农业劳动力特点,并与美国、日本和韩国比较。结合我国农业劳动力现状及国际比较,预测我国农业劳动力供给状况。结果表明,农业劳动力供给呈现出老龄化、男性化、教育程度高素质化趋势。未来主要农业劳动力将会是农村留守老人和返乡农民工,男性将是务农主力。同时,对已有研究中提及最多的农业经营主体多元化、农民职业化和规模化经营三种策略选择分别探讨其现状、问题及农业劳动力老龄化趋势的约束影响作用。从农村老年人社会保障、职业农民培育、土地规模化经营和政府定位等方面提出一系列应对农业劳动力老龄化的适应性政策建议,为促进我国未来农业现代化发展和保障粮食安全提供参考。
The aging tendency of agricultural labor investment became prominent due to the progress of industrialization,urbanization and population aging.Who would do farming in the future?The problem was addressed by international comparative analysis and countermeasure strategical choice discussion.Firstly,China's agricultural labor supply situation was analyzed and compared with that in America,Japan and South Korea in terms of gender,age and education level.It suggested that there was an aging,non-feminization,and rising education level trend for China's agricultural labor supply.Secondly,a forecast analysis for China's agricultural labor supply in the future was conducted.The forecast analysis indicated that the labor force would be dominated by the male left behind elder and returned-back migrated farmers in agricultural sector in the future.Thirdly,the diversities of agricultural principle operators,the professionalization of farmers and the scale of farm size were discussed in the context of aging challenge of agricultural labor investment.Lastly,a couple of adaptive policy implications and suggestions for China's agricultural development in the future were proposed in terms of the aging farmers'social security,the cultivation of professional farmers,farm concentration,and role of government inventions in the context of the aging of agricultural labor investment,which would be conductive to China's agricultural modernization and food security in the future.
作者
苏卫良
SU Weiliang(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期61-70,共10页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金委青年项目(71703141)。
关键词
农业劳动力
老龄化
国际比较
应对策略
agricultural labor
population aging
international comparison
countermeasure choices
