摘要
新冠肺炎突发疫情发生以来,国际国内经济不确定性风险加剧,对经济增长趋势的预判再次成为关注热点.金融是经济的血液,支付系统是社会资金流动的核心枢纽,通过研究支付系统资金交易量与经济增长之间的定量关系,有助于从资金流动视角发现经济增长变化趋势,为有效预测经济增长提供辅助参考.文章从协整分析角度研究全国范围支付系统资金交易数据与GDP之间的定量关系,通过逐步回归法将支付系统资金交易数据滞后期次纳入模型,分析了全国支付系统资金交易数据在GDP预测中的优势及不足,并提出政策建议.
Since COVID-19 outbreak occurred,the risk of international and domestic economic downturn has intensified.The prediction of economic growth trend has become a hot topic again.Finance is the blood of economy,and payment system is the core hub of social capital flow.By studying the quantitative relationship between capital transaction volume of payment system and economic growth,we can find the trend of economic growth from the perspective of capital flow,and provide auxiliary reference for effective prediction of economic growth.The paper studies the quantitative relationship between the national payment system fund transaction data and GDP from the perspective of cointegration analysis,and brings the lag time of payment system fund transaction data into the model by the stepwise regression method,analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the national payment system fund transaction data in GDP prediction,and puts forward policy suggestions.
作者
陈琳
CHEN Lin(School of Mathematical Sciences,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China)
出处
《太原师范学院学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第3期8-13,共6页
Journal of Taiyuan Normal University:Natural Science Edition
关键词
支付系统
资金交易
经济增长
协整
逐步回归
payment system
fund transaction
economic growth
cointegration
stepwise regression
