摘要
[目的]随着新型城镇化发展,城乡差距扩大问题愈加突出,探究新型城镇化发展对农民增收的影响对缩小城乡差距、实现城乡一体化发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章运用一元线性回归分析定量探究城镇化发展对农民收入增长的长期影响。采用向量自回归模型对新型城镇化发展水平与农民增收之间的相互影响进行方差分解,找到影响各自发展水平的主要原因。[结果](1)一元线性回归分析结果表明,新型城镇化发展水平对农民增收具有单向促进作用,新型城镇化发展水平每增长1%,农民收入将增长1.204%。(2)向量自回归模型分析结果表明,新型城镇化发展水平对农民收入的增长也具有显著影响,前新型城镇化发展水平每提高1%,未来1年农民收入将增长0.147%。(3)脉冲响应函数分析结果表明,新型城镇化水平对农民收入具有持续的正向冲击作用。(4)方差分解结果与脉冲响应函数结果一致,新型城镇化发展水平对农民收入增长的影响将越发明显,但促进农民收入增长的主要来源为自身的带动作用。[结论]新型城镇化水平的提高与农民收入的增长是一个良性循环机制,两者存在单向的因果促进关系。综合该研究结果,城乡差距扩大不是新型城镇化发展的必然结果,城镇化的提高可以促进农民增收,但是其发展速度和水平存在的差异引起城乡差距扩大化。因此,缩小城乡差距必须在继续推进城镇化的同时,增加农民收入途径,完善城乡体系建设,从来源和政策上促进农民增收,最大程度发挥城镇化水平和自身收入的促进作用。
With the development of new urbanization, the problem of widening the urban-rural gap is becoming more and more prominent. It is of great significance to explore the influence of the new urbanization level on the increase of farmers’ income to narrow the urban-rural gap and realize the development of urban-rural integration.This paper quantitatively explored the long-term influence of urbanization development on farmers’ income growth by means of linear regression analysis. By using vector autoregressive model, the variance of the interaction between the new urbanization level and the farmers’ income was decomposed, and the main reasons that affecting the development level of the new urbanization were found. The results of unitary linear regression analysis showed that the level of new urbanization had a unidirectional effect on the increase of farmers’ income, and the income of farmers would increase 1.204 percent if the level of development of new urbanization increases 1 percent. The results of vector autoregressive model showed that the level of new urbanization also had a significant impact on the growth of farmers’ income. If the development level of new urbanization was raised 1 percent, the income of farmers would increase 0.147 percent in the coming year. The results of impulse response function analysis showed that the new urbanization level had a sustained positive impact on farmers’ income. The result of variance decomposition was consistent with the result of impulse response function. The effect of the level on the increase of farmers’income would be more and more obvious, but the main source of promoting the growth of farmers’ income was their own driving effect. The improvement of new urbanization level and the increase of farmers’ income is a benign cycle mechanism, and there is a one-way causal promotion relationship between them. Based on the results of this study,the widening of urban-rural gap is not the inevitable result of the development of new urbanization, the increase
作者
郭武轲
Guo Wuke(Henan Agricultural University,the Centre of Scientific Development&Farmer's Rights,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan,China)
出处
《中国农业资源与区划》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期239-247,共9页
Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning
基金
河南省重点研发与推广专项(软科学)项目“经济新常态背景下我省农民市民化灰色预期因类施策及其应对”(192400410105)
教育部人文社科研究项目“我国农民参与改革的道义基础与行动逻辑研究”(18YJA710006)。
关键词
新型城镇化
农民收入
一元线性回归
向量自回归模型
河南
new urbanization
farmers income
univariate linear regression
vector autoregressive model
Henan
