摘要
依据2000—2017年中国与马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、菲律宾和印度尼西亚的水产品贸易数据,运用扩展的引力模型研究影响中国对东盟水产品贸易的主要因素,并依据回归模型,对双边水产品贸易潜力进行测算。结果表明,东盟各国总人口、中国与东盟各国的距离,以及双边GDP对水产品贸易的影响最大,并且东盟各国交通和能源基础设施建设质量以及加入CAFTA对双边贸易有重要的促进作用。进一步研究发现,中国与东盟水产品贸易潜力基本保持稳定,并可以进一步开拓贸易潜力。基于上述研究结果,为进一步拓展中国与东盟国家水产品贸易潜力,应调整和优化出口结构、深化多元化市场战略、提高创新能力,以及抓住“一带一路”倡议契机,推动中国与东盟国家水产品贸易健康稳定发展。
Based on the aquatic product trade data between China and ASEAN countries(i.e.Malaysia,Singapore,Thailand,the Philippines and Indonesia)from 2000 to 2017,this paper studies the main factors affecting the aquatic product trade between China and ASEAN countries by using the extended gravity model,and calculates the potential of bilateral aquatic product trade following the regression model.The results show that the total population of ASEAN countries,the distance between China and ASEAN countries and the bilateral GDP have the greatest impact on the trade of aquatic products between China and ASEAN,and the participation of ASEAN countries in CAFTA and the quality of transportation and energy infrastructure construction of ASEAN countries have an important role in promoting the bilateral trade.Further research shows that China has basically maintained stable trade potential with the five major ASEAN countries,and will further develop trade potential.According to the above conclusions,China should adjust and optimize the export structure,improve the innovation ability,deepen the market diversification strategy and seize the opportunity of“the Belt and Road”Initiative,so as to promote the healthy and stable development of the aquatic product trade between China and ASEAN countries.
作者
张瑛
杜文婷
Zhang Ying;Du Wenting(College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第1期90-100,共11页
Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)
基金
山东省软科学重点项目“山东省深远海渔业发展潜力与科技产业基础研究”(2019RZE29002)。
关键词
东盟
水产品贸易
引力模型
“一带一路”
ASEAN
aquatic product trade
gravity model
“the Belt and Road”Initiative
