摘要
本文将引力模型运用到中国与东盟贸易的定量分析中,利用2000-2004年的面板数据建立了包括GDP、人均GDP和距离等基本变量的基本引力模型,在此基础上增加了华人人口、通用华语等变量,得到了扩展的引力模型。然后运用得到的模型来评价中国与东盟的贸易潜力,最后运用模型预测出2006年中国与东盟各国贸易额的增长率。
In this thesis, the gravity model will be used in quantitative analysis of China-ASEAN trade, using 2000-2004 panel data to establish the basic gravity model and the expansive gravity model in order to study the main factors that have an impact on China-ASEAN bilateral trade volume. Then the thesis uses the model＇to measure China-ASEAN trade potential, and get the countries with inadequate potential. Finally, with the model, a conclusion can be drawn that China-ASEAN trade growth will be maintained at about 20%.
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第6期16-19,11,共5页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
关键词
引力模型
东盟
贸易流量
The Gravity Model
ASEAN
Trade Flow
