摘要
近年来我国水产品出口贸易逐渐面临竞争优势缩小、出口增速落后于进口增速、外需疲软的困境,2022年首次由贸易顺差转为贸易逆差,而RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,区域全面经济伙伴关系)的签署和生效将为中国水产品的出口贸易带来新的机遇。依据2006-2021年中国与RCEP 13个成员国的面板数据,构建随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型实证分析我国与RCEP其他成员国水产品出口贸易潜力。结果表明,中国渔业产值、贸易伙伴国GDP、进口国人口规模均会促进中国水产品出口,而中国人口规模和水产品产量的下降、贸易伙伴国较低水平的货币自由度会阻碍中国水产品的出口;在13个成员国内,对新西兰、韩国、澳大利亚、日本等发达国家的出口效率显著高于发展中国家;而对泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国的出口潜力值较高,贸易扩展空间巨大。基于结论,有针对性的提出要提升我国水产品的国际竞争力,遵循“互利共赢”的原则,创造更加便利化的贸易政策和更加开放的贸易环境,不断提高生产效率、贸易效率和产品质量,加快推进贸易便利化改革,提高中国水产品对RCEP各国的出口效率和出口潜力。
In recent years,China's aquatic product export trade has gradually faced the dilemma of shrinking competitive advantages,lagging behind import growth,and weak external demand.In 2022,for the first time,the trade surplus will turn into a trade deficit.The signing and implementation of RCEP will bring new opportunities for China's aquatic product export trade.Based on panel data from China and 13 member countries of RCEP from 2006 to 2021,a stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model are constructed to empirically analyze the export trade potential of aquatic products between China and other member countries of RCEP.The results indicate that China's fishery output value,GDP of trading partner countries,and population size of importing countries will all promote China's aquatic product exports,while the decline in China's population size and aquatic product production,as well as the lower level of currency freedom of trading partner countries,will hinder China's aquatic product exports.In the 13 member countries,the export efficiency to developed countries such as New Zealand,South Korea,Australia,and Japan is significantly higher than that of developing countries.The export potential to Thailand,the Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia,Japan,and South Korea is relatively high,and there is huge space for trade expansion.To enhance the international competitiveness of China's aquatic products,following the principle of"mutual benefit and win-win",creating more convenient trade policies and an open trade environment,continuously improving production efficiency,trade efficiency,and product quality,accelerating trade facilitation reform,and improving the export efficiency and potential of China's aquatic products to RCEP countries.
作者
邱慧婷
高维新
QIU Huiting;GAO Weixin(School of Economics,Guangdong Ocean University,Guangdong Zhanjiang 524088,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2024年第2期105-116,共12页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
基金
广东省研究生示范课程建设项目“农产品贸易学”(2019SFKC32)资助。
关键词
RCEP
水产品
出口效率
随机前沿引力模型
RCEP
aquatic products
export efficiency
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
