摘要
"海上丝绸之路"倡议将对世界政治经济格局产生深远影响,其推进势必伴随着中国权力半径的延伸和承受沿线国家地缘政治风险的阻碍,沿线国家地缘脆弱性成为影响倡议顺利推进的关键前提。从脆弱性视角出发,界定地缘脆弱性内涵,以敏感性—应对能力作为地缘脆弱性评估框架,基于综合指数法、空间探索性方法和ArcGIS可视化手段,利用GDELT中海量事件数据和沿线国家统计数据,测度2000-2017年"海上丝路"沿线海洋国家地缘脆弱性时空演变特征,探索地缘脆弱性演变的影响因素和内在机制。结果表明:①时间序列上,沿线区域地缘脆弱性波幅较大,不同板块差异显著;空间演变上,脆弱性高的国家数量先升后降,空间格局基本保持稳定。②三项指数均存在集聚性和区域差异性,且体现出地缘政治风险高和地缘影响力大的区域在空间上重叠的"悖论"。③地缘脆弱性演变的影响因素为地缘政治风险和地缘影响力;内在驱动力涉及地缘区位、地缘政治和地缘经济。
The"Maritime Silk Road"initiative will have a profound impact on the world′s political and economic structure,its advancement will inevitably be accompanied by the extension of China′s power radius and the hindrance of the geopolitical risks of countries along the route,the geopolitical vulnerability of the countries along the route has become a key prerequisite for influencing the smooth progress of the initiative.From the perspective of vulnerability,by defining the connotation of geopolitical vulnerability,using Sensitivity-Response capability as the geopolitical vulnerability assessment framework,and based on the comprehensive index method,the spatial exploratory data analysis method and ArcGIS visualization method,the power applies the massive event data in GDELT and statistical data of countries along the route to measure the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the geopolitical vulnerability of the countries along the"Maritime Silk Road"from 2000 to 2017,and explores the influencing factors and internal mechanism of the evolution of geopolitical vulnerability.The results show that:①On the time series,the geopolitical vulnerability of the regions along the route fluctuates greatly,and the difference between different plates is significant;In terms of spatial evolution,the number of countries with high vulnerability first rises and then falls,and the spatial pattern remains basically stable.②All three indexes have spatial agglomeration and regional differences,and it reflects the"paradox"that the regions with high geopolitical risks and great geopolitics influence overlap in space.③The factors influencing the evolution of geopolitical vulnerability are geopolitical risks and geopolitics influence;its internal driving force involves geopolitical location,geopolitics and geo-economy.
作者
彭飞
富宁宁
PENG Fei;FU Ningning(Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China)
出处
《海洋经济》
2020年第5期27-39,共13页
Marine Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目[41601114]
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大课题[18JJD790005]
辽宁省社会科学基金青年项目[L17CJL001]。
关键词
地缘政治学
地缘脆弱性
时空演变
影响因素
海上丝绸之路
Geopolitics
Geopolitical vulnerability
Spatio-temporal changes
Influence factor
Maritime Silk Road
