摘要
基于2008—2017年中国31个省区的面板数据,全面解析我国各省森林公园劳动力资本、经济资本及其它影响因素对森林公园旅游的带动作用,对我国港澳台外31省市区(包括省、直辖市、自治区)森林公园的旅游业进行GMM回归分析,然后引入滞后变量分别分析劳动力资本、经济资本对森林旅游的滞后影响,最后运用面板门槛模型分析作用机制。研究结果为:1)经济资本作为主要动因一直以来正向带动森林公园旅游业,但人力资本的带动效应却不明显。2)滞后性分析显示劳动力资本对森林公园旅游带动存在明显的时间滞后效应,在短期内不能立竿见影但随着投入时间的增加,对当地森林公园旅游发展的促进作用也在进一步释放出来。3)劳动力资本与经济资本通过协同机制对森林公园旅游发展进一步产生正向影响,面板门槛模型显示当劳动力资本跨越门槛值后,经济资本对森林公园旅游的作用会由抑制转为促进。4)对于森林公园旅游业不能单纯只靠劳动力数量的增加,更要注重吸引和留住专业人才;森林公园建设需要大量经济资本,充足的资金是森林旅游发展的基础和保障。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and regions in China from 2008 to 2017,comprehensively analyze the leading role of forest park labor capital,economic capital and other influencing factors in forest park tourism in my country’s provinces.First,GMM regression analysis was conducted on the tourism industry of forest parks in 31 provinces(including provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions)outside Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan,and then the lagging variables were introduced to analyze the lagging effects of labor capital and economic capital on forest tourism,respectively.Finally,it uses the panel threshold model to analyze the mechanism.The Results are as follows:1)Economic capital as the main driver has always been driving forest park tourism,but the driving effect of human capital is not obvious.2)The lag analysis shows that labor capital has a significant time lag effect on forest park tourism,which cannot be immediate in the short term but with the increase of investment time,the promotion of local forest park tourism development is also further released.3)Labor capital and economic capital have a further positive effect on the development of forest park tourism through a synergistic mechanism;the panel threshold model shows that when labor capital crosses the threshold,the role of economic capital in forest park tourism will change from inhibition to promotion.4)For the forest park tourism industry,we cannot simply rely on the increase in the number of labor,but also focus on attracting and retaining professional talents;the construction of forest parks requires a large amount of economic capital,and sufficient funds are the foundation and guarantee of forest tourism development.
作者
郑雯雪
张维泰
胡原
ZHENG Wenxue;ZHANG Weitai;HU Yuan(School of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 635000,Sichuan,China;Southwest Research Center for Poverty Reduction and Development,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 635000,Sichuan,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第4期102-110,共9页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology（Social Sciences）
基金
国家社科基金项目“四省藏区农牧户融入现代农业生产体系的机制与模式研究”(19BMZ116)。
关键词
森林公园
劳动力资本
经济资本
机制分析
forest parks
human input
capital investment
mechanism analysis
