摘要
为了评估我国燃料乙醇扩大的福利影响,本文构建了开放经济下的多部门—多市场局部均衡模型,考察了燃料乙醇政策对农产品以及能源相关市场的经济福利影响。研究结果显示:新燃料乙醇政策将导致燃料乙醇产量、进口量和价格大幅上涨,食用和饲用的玉米向燃料乙醇生产行业转移,减少了对石油的消耗,经济福利在各个产品市场之间重新分配。就减少粮食库存而言,E10政策更为有效,且扶持了燃料乙醇产业发展,但未能满足减少碳排放的需求。
To assess the welfare impacts of the ethanol production expansion in China, we construct a multi-sector partial-equilibrium model in an open economy. The model investigates the welfare impact of ethanol production expansion on agricultural and related energy markets. Simulation results suggest that ethanol policy leads to a substantial increase in ethanol production, imports and its price, but a reduction in crude oil utilization. Consumption in food and feed is diverted into ethanol production. Social welfare is redistributed among different markets. The E10 policy is an effective policy. It helps reduce inventory of agricultural feedstock, boosts up ethanol industry, but fails to mitigate carbon emissions.
作者
崔静波
杨云兰
孙永平
JINGBO CUI;YUNLAN YANG;YONGPING SUN(Wuhan University;School of Low Carbon Economics at Hubei University of Economics/Center of Hubei Cooperative Innovation for Emissions Trading System,Wuhan,Hubei,430205)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期757-776,共20页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603191)、应急项目(71741013)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH079)的初步研究成果
武汉大学人文社科青年学术团队“发展经济学研究的新思路:理论设计、实验检验与政策评估”的资助。
关键词
燃料乙醇
经济福利
碳排放
ethanol
economic welfare
carbon emissions
