摘要
2020年初油价迅猛下跌,对石油行业和世界经济产生了巨大的影响。这次低油价是在前期相对低价背景上的油价"低谷",石油工业上下游同时出现了危机。原油供大于需的走势日趋明显和新冠疫情大爆发为其形成的首要因素,全球经济低迷使其雪上加霜,世界政治形势的动乱增加了油气发展的不确定性。多种因素的叠加将会使近期油价在"低谷"中徘徊。能源构成的变化、石油生产的发展进入平台区并即将达到峰值,使未来中长期油价可能在中等偏低的水平上波动。这次油价"低谷"将对石油工业上游,特别是上游油服业产生重大冲击,对世界石油格局产生巨大影响。对于石油进口依存度已超过70%的中国,低油价对国民经济的发展有有利的一面,但产生的负面影响也值得关注。这要求我们导入石油发展战略的新方向:一方面继续坚持把降本增效作为企业发展永恒的主题,努力增储上产;另一方面把油气工业汇入国家能源转型的大计中,保障国家能源供应安全。
The rapid decline in oil prices in early 2020 has had a huge impact on the oil industry and the world economy.The oil prices hit a new low against the relatively low oil prices in early periods,and both the upstream and the downstream of the oil industry are faced with a crisis.The increasingly obvious trend of oversupply of crude oil and the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic are the primary factors of the crisis,the global economic downturn has made it worse,and the unrest in the world political situation has increased the uncertainty of oil and gas development.The superposition of multiple factors will keep oil prices at low levels in the near future.Since the energy composition changed and the development of oil production have reached a plateau and are about to reach a peak,the oil price may fluctuate at a moderately low level in the medium and long term.This oil price crash will have a significant impact on the upstream of the oil industry,especially the upstream oil service industry,and have a huge impact on the world oil pattern.For China whose dependence on oil imports has exceeded 70%,low oil prices are beneficial to the development of national economy,but the negative impact deserves attention.This requires us to introduce the new direction of oil development strategy.We should continue to take cost reduction and efficiency improvement as the eter-nal theme of enterprise development,and strive to increase the reserves and output.Meanwhile,we should integrate the oil and gas industry into the national energy transition plan to ensure the security of energy supply in China.
作者
张抗
张立勤
Zhang Kang;Zhang Liqin(SINOPEC Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083;0i1l and Gas Resources Survey Center,China Geological Survey,Beijing 100083)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2020年第5期1-11,共11页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
低油价
供大于需
新冠疫情
能源构成变化
油服业
石油发展战略
low oil price
oversupply
COVID-19 epidemic
change in energy composition
oil service industry
oil development strategy
