摘要
储产比是年底剩余可采储量与该年产量的比值,该值常被误解为现有油气还能采多少年,从而得出其即将枯竭的错误推论。构成储产比的分子和分母都是受多因素影响的变量,仅油气统计范围的变化(如某种非常规油气计入储产量)就可引起其明显的跃升。世界石油储产比总体呈上升趋势,2013年为57.6;天然气储产比总体也呈上升趋势,2004年达63.1,但2010年以来略降,近4年均值为58.3。中国石油储产比在1984年达到峰值19.5,此后呈下降趋势,2013年为12.2;天然气储产比经历大发展初期的攀升,在2002年达到66.3,此后(特别是2006年以来)呈下降趋势,2013年为29。总的看来,中国油气储产比低于世界油气储产比,但目前与美国属于同一级别。储产比过高和过低都不利于油气工业健康发展,资源基础雄厚、并可在短期内调动市场力量投入勘探者,储产比可稍低些。研究表明,油气作为能源主力的地位至少可持续到21世纪后期。
Reserve and production ratio is the ratio of the yearend remaining recoverable reserve to the annual output. This value is often mistaken for how long the existing reserve can last. The numerator and denominator of the ratio are variables under the influence of many factors. The changes in the oil and gas statistical figures(such as a certain kind of non-conventional oil and gas is included in the reserveproduction ratio) may cause the ratio to rise substantially. Generally speaking, the world oil reserve and production ratio is on the rise. It is 57.5 in 2013. The natural gas reserve and production ratio is also on the rise, reaching 63.1 in 2004, but it has dropped slightly since 2010. The average value is 58.3 in the past four years. China's oil reserve and production ratio reached its peak of 19.5 in 1984 and then declined to 12.2 in 2013. The country's natural gas reserve and production ratio climbed at the initial stage of rapid development, reaching 66.3 in 2002 and then was on the decline(particularly after 2006), reaching 29 in 2013. Generally speaking, China oil and gas reserve and production ratios are lower than the world's average, belonging the same level as the United States. The healthy oil and gas industrial development may be affected when the reserve and production ration is too high or too low. The reserve and production ratio can be lowered slightly if the resources are abundant with the market forces able to be mobilized for exploration in a short period of time. The study indicates that oil and gas used as main energy can last well into the second half of the 21 st century.
出处
《中国石油勘探》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第1期17-23,共7页
China Petroleum Exploration
关键词
石油
天然气
储产比
储量
产量
油气供需
petroleum,natural gas,reserve and production ratio,reserve,production,oil and gas demand and supply
