摘要
在采空区管道风险评估过程中,为有效降低评估指标模糊性、不确定性对评价结果准确度的影响,提出了一种基于灰色模糊理论与变权理论相结合的采空区管道风险评估方法。首先,基于煤矿采空区与管道的设计、运行以及维护的实际情况,从灾害发生、灾害防治、管道失效、管道防护、灾害后果5个方面建立采空区管道的风险评估指标体系;再依据变权重理论,结合各个因素取值状况,动态调整其权重值,以保证各评估指标的均衡性;最后,针对各个指标信息的模糊性和灰色性,以隶属度表征指标信息外延不明确的特征,同时利用点灰度描述信息内涵不明确的现象。以此建立灰色模糊综合评价模型,对采空区管道的风险水平进行综合评估。实例分析表明,采空区管道风险评估方法得出的结果客观、准确,验证了该方法的可行性。
In the process of risk assessment of gob pipelines,in order to effectively reduce the influence of ambiguity and uncertainty of indicators on the accuracy of assessment results,a risk assessment method of gob pipelines based on grey fuzzy theory and variable weight theory is proposed.Firstly,based on the actual situation of the design,operation and maintenance of coal gob and pipeline,the risk assessment indicators system of gob pipeline is established from five aspects,namely disaster occurrence,disaster prevention,pipeline failure,pipeline protection,and disaster consequences.According to the variable weight theory,combined with the value of each indicator,the weight value is dynamically adjusted to ensure the balance of each indicator.Finally,for the ambiguity and grayness of each index information,the membership degree is used to represent the undefined extension features,and the point gray scale is used to represent the undefined connotation features.A grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to comprehensively evaluate the risk level of the gob pipeline.The case study shows that the results obtained by the risk assessment method of the gob pipeline are objective and accurate,which verifies the feasibility of the method.
作者
邓克飞
梁伟
张潇婷
梁晓斌
DENG Kefei;LIANG Wei;ZHANG Xiaoting;LIANG Xiaobin(Shanxi Gas Transmission Management Department Beijing Gas Pipeline Co.,Ltd.,CNPC;College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing))
出处
《油气田地面工程》
2020年第6期66-71,77,共7页
Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目“原油天然气储罐及附属管道、辅助设施安全评定与风险评价预警研究”(2017YFC0805804)
中石油北京天然气管道有限公司资助项目“陕京管道采空区风险评估与防治措施研究”(KYKJ-16-058)。
关键词
采空区管道
风险评估
灰色模糊评价
变权理论
点灰度
隶属度
gob pipeline
risk assessment
grey fuzzy evaluation
variable weight theory
point gray scale
membership degree
