摘要
目的评估2019年12月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计12月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将维持较高水平,但较11月下降,如果流行性感冒(流感)暴发事件的上升速度异常加快则使该判断存在较大的不确定性。常见事件可能以流感、水痘、流行性腮腺炎、诺如病毒感染等事件为主。内蒙古自治区的人间鼠疫的风险将会随着气温降低和防控工作推进而明显降低。流感将出现季节性升高,诺如病毒引发的感染性腹泻病疫情将继续升高。12月气温降低,居民冬季取暖不当导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将较11月上升。肾综合征出血热将出现季节性高发,但发病水平低于2018年同期水平。结论 2019年12月需要对鼠疫、季节性流感予以重点关注,对诺如病毒感染性腹泻、肾综合征出血热、非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以一般关注。
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in December 2019. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal. Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be at a high level in December,but it would be lower compared with November. If the increase of influenza outbreaks accelerate abnormally, this prediction might be affected. Most events reported in December might be the outbreaks of seasonal influenza, varicella, mumps, and norovirus infection. The risk of human plague in Inner Mongolia would be obviously lower because of lower air temperature and the progress in plague prevention and control. The seasonal increase of influenza incidence would occur and the epidemics of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus would continue to increase. Compared with November, the incidence of nonoccupational carbon monoxide poisoning would rise due to increased unsafe winter heating in December. The incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) would be at a seasonal high level, but it would be lower compared with the same period in 2018. Conclusion Close attention should be paid to plague and seasonal influenza, and general attention should be paid to norovirus caused infectious diarrhea, HFRS and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.
作者
靳珂
李建东
杨静
靳淼
王哲
李超
涂文校
向妮娟
李群
Jin Ke;Li Jiandong;Yang Jing;Jin Miao;Wang Zhe;Li Chao;Tu Wenxiao;Xiang Nijuan;Li Qun(Shandong First Medical University,Taian 271016,Shandong,China;National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
2019年第12期1048-1051,共4页
Disease Surveillance
