摘要
既有研究论证了农民的非永久迁移是户籍制度以及农村土地制度造成的不正常现象。但这是不是就意味着一旦这些制度被完善,这种非永久人口迁移就将被永久迁移取代?本文基于浙江省4个县市4个行政村的家庭普查数据,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归模型,探讨在户籍、土地“三权”改革制度背景下,农民永久性迁移意愿及土地权益对其的影响机制。研究结果表明农民对于举家永久性迁移定居城镇的总体意愿并不强烈,进城落户后普遍选择继续保留“三权”。进一步探究具体的土地权益因素影响及机制发现:三权制度改革对农民的永久性迁移意愿产生显著影响;现阶段土地禀赋对农民进城落户意愿具有负向影响;土地流转不直接导致农民的永久性迁移,但其可以通过部分禀赋因素的改变(如家庭非农业就业人口)解决农地流转中农民永久性迁移的困境。控制因素中,家庭中成员外出就业情况、是否已在城镇购房或建房等指标对农民永久性迁移意愿产生显著影响。因此,为了进一步有序促进农民的永久性迁移,推动新型城镇化的发展,应加快推进“三权到人(户)、权跟人(户)走”改革,加大政策改革的宣传力度,完善农村土地经营权流转政策,关注农民理性决策中预期的风险成本收益,如土地权益、流入地的居住成本等,要解决农民想进来、进得来的问题,更要关注农民住得下、留得下的问题。
Throughout current literature,many scholars have studied and demonstrated that non-permanent migration of farmers is an abnormal phenomenon caused by household registration system and rural land system.However,dose it mean that once these systems have been improved,such non-permanent migration would be replaced by permanent migrationBased on the data of 4 typical villages in 4 counties of Zhejiang,this paper used descriptive statistics and logistic regression model to discuss the permanent migration intention of farmers and the influence factors in the background of the system of household registration and the reform system of land“Three Rights”revolution.Results showed that:under the current background of vigorously carrying out the reform of household registration and rural“Three Rights”in Zhejiang,the peasants’intention of the permanent migration to settlement towns is also not strong,and they generally continue to retain their“Three Rights”after settling in cities.With further discussion about the impact and mechanism of specific land right and interest factors,the paper put forward four conclusions:(1)The reform of “Three Rights”system has a significant effect on the permanent migration willingness of farmers.(2)At the present stage,the land endowment has a negative impact on the willingness of farmers to settle in cities.(3) The land circulation does not directly lead to the permanent migration of farmers but it can change part of its endowment factors(such as domestic employment of non-agricultural population)to solve the plight of permanent migration of farmers in farmland circulation.(4)Among the control factors,such as gender,outside employment situations of family members and whether they have bought or built houses in urban areas all have significant influences on the willingness of farmers to migrate permanently.Therefore,to stimulate the farmers’permanent migration and promote the development of new urbanization,we should accelerate the reform of“three rights to the people(hous
作者
金细簪
周家乐
储炜玮
JIN Xizan;ZHOU Jiale;CHU Weiwei(School of Management,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou Zhejiang,310023,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期101-112,共12页
Population Journal
基金
国家社科基金青年项目：产权强度、资源禀赋与农民土地征收的预期意愿及行为研究（17CSH026）
教育部重大课题：加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度研究（18JZD033）
关键词
三权改革
土地权益
永久性迁移
LOGISTIC分析
“Three Rights”Revolution
Land Rights and Interests
Permanent Migration
Logistic Analysis
