摘要
美国是中国林木产品第一大出口目的国和第三大进口来源国,然而愈演愈烈的中美贸易摩擦严重威胁双边林木产品贸易的正常秩序。文章借助GTAP模型,模拟分析了中美贸易摩擦背景下两国相互加征关税对双边林木产品贸易的影响,结果显示:①如果中美双边贸易摩擦不进一步升级,林木产业不被进一步加征关税,中国的林木产业将间接受益,实现产出和出口的扩张,而美国的林木产业产出与出口则将小幅受损。②如果中美贸易摩擦进一步升级至对来自对方的全部进口商品加征25%关税,则中国林木产业的产出和贸易盈余都将因失去美国部分市场而萎缩,而美国林木产业则会因进口减少引致的进口替代效应实现产出和贸易盈余的增加。③就林木产业而言,中国对美国的依赖要高于美国对中国的依赖,在对等的关税大战下,中国林木产业的受损程度将更高。
The United States is the largest export destination and the third largest import source of China' s forest products. However, the escalating Sino-US trade friction is disturbing the normal order of the forest products trade between China and the US. This paper analyzed the influence of mutual tariff punishment on the bilateral forest products trade between China and the US, by using the GTAP model. The results showed that:(1)if the Sino-US trade friction was stopped from further upgrading, the output and exports of China' s forestry products would ex pand, while the output and exports of the US's forestry products would slightly shrink.(2)if further Sino-US trade friction upgraded to a 25% tariff imposed on all imports from the other party, China' s forestry industry would suffer from output and trade surplus shrink due to the export market loss of the United States, while the US' s forestry in dustry would benefit from output and trade surplus grow due to the import substitution effect. At last, China' s for estry industry would depend more on the United States than the United States rely on China, and under the equiva lent tariff punishment, the damage from the China's forestry industry would be more.
作者
张为付
张晓磊
王原雪
Zhang Weifu;Zhang Xiaolei;Wang Yuanxue(School of International Economics and Business, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing210023;School of Business, Jinling Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211169)
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2019年第7期3-9,共7页
Forestry Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“TPP外部约束下我国融入国际价值链分工战略研究”(编号:16JZD019)
江苏省社会科学基金项目“企业参与GVC分工位置攀升视角下低收入群体就业性收入增长研究”(编号:18EYD006)
金陵科技学院高层次人才项目“东亚经济一体化与区域价值链:基于贸易效率与模拟分析”(编号:jit-b-201828)
