摘要
"一带一路"倡议是中国与沿线各国携手共建的开放性合作平台,中国致力于通过"一带一路"倡议帮助沿线各国缩小发展差距,共享发展成果,打造甘苦与共、命运相连的发展共同体。文章使用GTAP方法模拟分析了中国基于"一带一路"倡议合作框架、面向沿线各国提供的扶持政策所产生的泛区域脱贫效应。研究发现:(1)虽然中国扩大面向"一带一路"沿线各国的进口,以及增加向"一带一路"沿线各国的基础设施投资和援建,可以提升沿线各国非熟练劳动力的实际工资,但这一政策影响的幅度非常有限,不足以帮助其实现脱贫。(2)中国直接通过国际产能合作的方式向"一带一路"沿线中低收入和低收入国家转移劳动力密集型产业产能,可以有效增加沿线各国的低技能劳动要素需求,大幅提升其真实工资水平,帮助其实现脱贫目标。(3)中国基于"一带一路"倡议与沿线各国展开经贸合作并不会直接威胁到美国等发达经济体的贸易利益,其出口规模会因"一带一路"沿线各国经济发展带来的需求扩张而呈现增长趋势,特别是中国对美国的出口规模会大幅减少,有利于缩减中国对美国的出口顺差,从而缓和两国间的贸易冲突。上述研究结论表明,中国可以借助"一带一路"倡议,重点与沿线非熟练劳动力资源丰富且贫困化问题严峻的欠发达国家展开劳动密集型产业的产能合作,一方面可以有效化解国内劳动力供给不足的困境,另一方面也可以帮助沿线欠发达地区创造更多的就业机会,减轻其国内的贫困化问题。
The Belt and Road Initiative is an open cooperation platform for joint development and prosperity sharing.China is committed to helping countries along the Belt and Road to narrow the development gap,share the fruits of economic growth,and build a community with a shared future.However,the global income disparity and the widening north-south gap remain grim.A series of problems,such as poverty,as well as the derived hunger,disease and social conflicts,are still plaguing many countries along the Belt and Road.Then,can the Belt and Road Initiative initiated by China effectively help the less developed areas along the Belt and Road to solve the problem of poverty?This is not only related to whether the Belt and Road Initiative can win broad support from countries along the Belt and Road,but also the basis for China to formulate economic and trade cooperation policies with countries along the Belt and Road.With the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and the GTAP 9.0 database,we simulate the pan-regional poverty reduction effect of China’s policies in multiple contexts,including tariffs reduction and transportation infrastructure investment to all the countries along the Belt and Road,and transferring some labor-intensive industries to the less developed areas along the Belt and Road.We find that China expanding its imports and transportation infrastructure investment to countries along the Belt and Road could increase the real wages of unskilled labor of the low-and middle-income countries along the Belt and Road,but the policy effect is very limited,which is not enough to help them to get rid of poverty.However,China could transfer its labor-intensive industry to the low-and middle-income countries along the Belt and Road through international production capacity cooperation,which could effectively increase the real wages of low-skilled labor in the host countries and help them to get rid of poverty successfully.Besides,China’s economic and trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road is also c
作者
王原雪
张晓磊
张二震
Wang Yuanxue;Zhang Xiaolei;Zhang Erzhen(School of Business,Jinling Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211169,China;School of International Economics and Business,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,China;Yangtze IDEI,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期80-93,共14页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
江苏省社会科学基金项目(18EYD006)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目(2018SJA0250,2019SJA0469)
金陵科技学院高层次人才科研启动项目(jit-b-201828)
江苏省软科学项目(BR2019060)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJA790016).
关键词
“一带一路”倡议
脱贫
GTAP模型
政策模拟
the Belt and Road Initiative
poverty reduction
GTAP model
policy simulation
