摘要
基于1991—2020年22个中国木质家具主要出口国家(地区)的面板数据,以贸易引力基础模型为原型,引入中国木质家具出口市场占有率作为门槛变量,构造面板门槛模型,实证分析出口市场占有率对中国木质家具出口的门槛效应。结果表明:(1)出口市场占有率对中国木质家具出口增长具有阶段性影响,存在一个出口由高增长转向中增长的拐点和出口增长趋近于0的顶点;(2)当出口市场占有率低于27.29%时,中国木质家具出口增长处于快速增长阶段;当出口市场占有率处于27.29%~36.60%时,出口增长明显减速,但仍处于增长阶段;当出口市场占有率高于36.60%时,出口接近零增长;(3)出口市场国(地区)的人均国民收入提高也具有显著的正向影响。据此,建议根据出口市场占有率所处阶段对不同市场类型采取不同策略,优先选择快速增长市场和增长空间大的市场,关注人均国民收入较高和增速较快的市场,加快实施“双循环”战略,对外实现贸易转型升级,对内实现国内大市场增长。
Based on the panel data collected from 1991 to 2020 of 22 major exporting countries and regions of China’s wooden furniture,the export market share of China’s wooden furniture as a threshold variable was introduced into the basic model of trade gravity to construct a panel threshold model to empirically analyze the threshold effect of export market share on China’s wooden furniture export.The results showed that:(1)The export market share has a periodical impact on the growth of China’s wooden furniture exports.There exists an inflection point when exports turn from high growth to medium growth and the peak of export growth approaches zero.(2)When the export market share is lower than 27.29%,the export of China’s wooden furniture enjoys a rapid growth stage.When the export market share is between 27.29% and 36.60%,the export growth slows down significantly,but it is still in a growth stage.When the export market share is higher than36.60%,the export growth is close to zero.(3)The increase in the per capita national income of export market countries and regions also has a significant positive impact. Therefore,the paper recommends that Chinese wooden furniture enterprises should adopt different strategies for different market types according to the stage of the export market share,prioritize fast-growing markets and markets with large room for growth,focuse on markets with high per capita national income and rapid growth in per capita national income,and implement quickly the dual circulation strategy to realize the transformation and upgrading of trade externally and exploit the large domestic market internally.
作者
田明华
王富炜
陈竞
TIAN Minghua;WANG Fuwei;CHEN Jing(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《农林经济管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期573-582,共10页
Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY196)。
