摘要
以民航相关安全信息统计报告中统计数据为基础,分析了跑道侵入事故发生的主导因素。首先,采用人-机-环-管法系统分析事故成因,确定贝叶斯网络节点;然后,找出事故发生链路,基于概率推理分析平台Netica建立跑道侵入事故贝叶斯网络分析模型并进行有效性验证;最后,结合跑道侵入事故样本,观察各致因状态空间切换造成的贝叶斯网络先验概率与后验概率分布变化,并对各影响因素的致因概率波动幅度进行对比。结果表明,在人为因素方面,机组失误造成的跑道侵入事故概率最高。
Based on the statistic data in the civil aviation safety information statistical reports,the dominant factors of the runway incursion accidents are analyzed.Firstly,accident factors are analyzed with the man-equipment-environment-management method,and the Bayesian network nodes are determined.Then,the fault chain is found,and a Bayesian network analysis model for runway incursion accidents is established based on Netica,a probabilistic reasoning analysis platform.The validity of the model is verified.Finally,combined with the samples of the runway incursion accidents,the distribution changes of the prior probability and posterior probability of the Bayesian network caused by the change of hazard factors′status space are observed,and the variation range of the hazard factors′probability is contrasted.Results show that the highest probability of runway incursion accidents in the aspect of human factors is caused by air crew′s false.
作者
庾睿
YU Rui(College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Operation Programming and Safety Technology of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)
出处
《指挥信息系统与技术》
2019年第1期55-59,共5页
Command Information System and Technology
关键词
跑道侵入
贝叶斯网络
Netica
事故链
致因概率
runway incursion
Bayesian network
Netica
fault chain
hazard factor′s probability
