摘要
针对装配式建筑吊装施工期间风险影响因素多、不确定性高及风险状态随时间动态变化等问题,提出基于动态贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险动态分析方法。首先,根据装配式建筑吊装施工特点和事故致因理论,从“人、物、环、管”4个方面建立风险指标体系。其次,引入时间维度建立动态贝叶斯网络模型,利用模糊理论和专家打分法量化网络节点的概率,并结合Leaky Noisy-or Gate扩展模型修正条件概率。最后,利用动态贝叶斯网络的双向推理功能对装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险进行动态风险分析。由实例分析得到某装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险的时序变化曲线,通过反向推理得到导致吊装事故发生的关键风险因素。研究成果可为分析和有效控制装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险提供新思路。
To address the issues of multiple risk factors,high uncertainty,and dynamic changes in risk state during the construction of prefabricated building hoisting,a dynamic analysis method for safety risk during prefabricated building hoisting construction based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks is proposed.Firstly,according to the construction characteristics of prefabricated building hoisting and accident cause theory,15 safety risk analysis indexes of hoisting are proposed from four aspects:human,material,environment,and management.The safety risk index system of hoisting construction of a prefabricated building is constructed.Then,the time dimension is introduced to establish a Dynamic Bayesian Network model,the probability of network nodes is quantified by fuzzy theory and expert scoring method,and the conditional probability is modified by combining the Leaky Noisy-or Gate extended model.Finally,the bidirectional inference function of the dynamic Bayesian network is used to analyze the dynamic risk of the safety risk of the hoisting of the prefabricated building.The time series change curve of safety risk in hoisting construction of a certain prefabricated building is obtained by case analysis,and the key risk factors leading to hoisting accidents are obtained by reverse reasoning.The results show that the probability of a lifting accident occurring at the initial moment is 0.313,and the probability of hoisting risk occurring increases significantly with the increase of construction time.Through the comparison of the posterior probability,it is found that the assembly building hoisting mainly has a greater risk in 2 aspects:human and material.The hoisting safety supervisory staff configuration,on-site construction safety management level,prefabricated components quality level,and lifting equipment operation condition are the key factors leading to the occurrence of hoisting construction safety risk.The research results can provide a new way to analyze and effectively control the safety risk of prefabricated building h
作者
杨文安
李佳欣
YANG Wenan;LI Jiaxin(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期1328-1336,共9页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ30744)。
关键词
安全工程
装配式建筑
吊装施工
动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)
风险分析
safety engineering
prefabricated building
hoisting construction
Dynamic Bayesian Network(DBN)
risk analysis
