摘要
本文基于全国高校毕业生微观抽样调查数据,采用空间自回归交互模型对高校毕业生在就读地和就业地之间形成的跨省就业O-D流进行了实证研究。主要发现有:(1)高校毕业生就业O-D流具有显著的空间相关性,基于流出地、流入地和流出地—流入地三种类型的空间相关系数都显著为正,因而忽略空间相关的特征会导致估计结果不可靠;(2)跨省就业流量与距离负相关,且距离的这种负向影响由于空间相关的引入而变弱;(3)考虑空间相关后,各区域因素对O-D流的影响效应可分解为源点效应、目的地效应、域内效应和网络效应,而且经济因素和非经济因素对高校毕业生OD流的影响效应各异。基于上述结论,本文认为未来的区域人才政策要实现"两个转变":一是强调空间协调性,跳出孤立发展思路,建立更广域的人才观;二是强调路径针对性,区域应根据自身现实选择差异化的人才政策集合。
Factors involving the flow between regions affected by a third region can be generalized as spatial dependence.Based on micro survey data,this paper obtaines the Origin-Destination(O-D) flow data of Chinese college graduates' inter-provincial migration. Using the Spatial Autoregressive Interaction Model, the empirical research finds that:(1) graduates' migration is highly spatially dependent,and three types of positive spatial dependence arise between O-D flows: origin-based, destination-based, and origin to destination based dependence,which leads to biased and inconsistent estimates if missed;(2) O-D flows decrease with the increase of distance,and the impact of distance is weakened when spatial dependence is introduced;(3) under spatial structure,four types of effects that arise from changes in the regional characteristics are quantified,which are origin,destination,intraregional and network effects,and economic and non-economic factors act differently in these effects. Regional talent policy should take spatial dependence into account.
出处
《北京大学教育评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期159-178,共20页
Peking University Education Review
基金
国家自科基金面上项目(71573008)
全国教育科学规划国家青年基金(CGA130157)
国家社科基金一般项目(15BJL100)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(16YJC790088)
2016年度广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(KY2016YB013)
