摘要
中国与欧亚经济联盟的经贸合作备受关注,签署双边自由贸易协定(FTA)被认为是一种可能性较大的选项。通过构建全球多区域一般均衡模型对双边关税削减的不同组合开展情景分析,可知欧亚经济联盟关税壁垒的下降使中国受益明显,但欧亚经济联盟受益程度较为有限,仅能在中国积极减税而自身保守减税的情景下实现经济福利的小幅提升。欧亚经济联盟产业结构偏重资源产品和重工业,民生相关产业发展较滞后,居民消费大量依赖进口产品,这些结构性因素是导致其无法有效利用中国市场开放的根本原因,也是中国-欧亚经济联盟FTA推进的最大经济阻力。当前欧亚经济联盟将关税壁垒削减议题排除在双边FTA谈判之外的原因,也在于此。短期来看,欧亚经济联盟倾向于同具有传统友好关系的、中小型经济体签署自由贸易协定,以避免对其经济系统产生较大扰动。
Economic and trade cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU) has attracted great attention, among which bilateral free trade agreement(FTA) is considered as a probable option. This paper analyzes different combinations of bilateral tariff reductions by constructing a global multi-regional general equilibrium model. It is found declining EAEU tariff barriers obviously benefit China, but the benefits for the EAEU are quite limited. Only when China actively reduces tariffs and the EAEU do it to a certain extent, can the EAEU achieve a slight increase in its economic welfare. The industrial structure of the EAEU consists of a large share of resource goods and heavy industries, while the development of livelihood-related industries is lagging behind. Residents of the EAEU mainly rely on imports. All these structural factors are root causes rendering the EAEU unable to effectively employ China's open market. Meanwhile, they are also the biggest economic obstacles against promoting China-EAEU FTA. This also explains why currently the EAEU excludes the reduction in tariff barriers issue from the bilateral FTA negotiations. In the short term, the EAEU tends to sign FTAs with small and medium-sized economies with traditional friendly relations in order to avoid disturbances to its economic system.
出处
《俄罗斯研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期82-111,共30页
Russian Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"北极航道的发展前景
经济影响与中国的参与机制"(项目批准号:15CGJ024)
国家自然科学基金项目"面向国家经济安全的地缘政治经济学研究"(项目批准号:41171104)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
欧亚经济联盟
欧亚经济联盟产业结构
中国与欧亚经济联盟
the Eurasian Economic Union
Industrial Structure of the EAEU
China and the Eurasian Economic Union
