摘要
中国大豆产业高度依赖进口,且进口来源高度集中,大豆进口主要来源国面临的自然灾害和经贸摩擦等都会影响国内大豆产业,增加进口不确定性。为应对国际风险,基于各国大豆的供需平衡表和全球双边贸易矩阵等数据,利用全球农产品局部均衡模型方法,定量模拟评估了提高中国大豆单产、加强与阿根廷和俄罗斯大豆合作等三项对策可能带来的政策效果。结果表明:这些对策均能在不同程度增加全球大豆供给,降低世界价格,同时,可分散进口风险,减少对美国和巴西的高度进口依赖,促进大豆进口多元化,增加中国消费者福利,形成更稳定和可持续的大豆进口贸易格局。由此提出以下建议:首先,应加大国内大豆研发技术投入,提高单产,提高自给率;其次,在环境可持续发展的背景下,同主产国合作提高其应对自然风险等的能力,保障稳定的大豆供给;同时,拓宽进口来源,加强与俄罗斯和乌克兰等国家的农业合作,增加国际市场供给,实现大豆进口多元化,分散风险。
China’s soybean industry is highly dependent on imports and the sources of imports are also highly concentrated.The natural disasters and trade frictions faced by main soybean import source countries may also affect China soybean industry and generate import uncertainties.To address the international risks,based on the soybean supply and demand balance sheet and global bilateral trade matrix,using the method of the global agricultural commodities partial equilibrium model,this study quantitatively simulated and evaluated the possible policy effects of three strategies,namely increasing China’s soybean yield and strengthening soybean cooperation with Argentina and Russia.The results show that these measures can increase the global soybean supply and decrease the world price to varying degrees.While at the same time,they can also diversify import risks,reduce the high dependence on the United States and Brazil,and promote the diversification of soybean imports,increase the welfare of Chinese consumers,and form a more stable and sustainable trade pattern.Accordingly,it is proposed that firstly,we should increase investment in domestic soybean research and development to improve domestic soybean yield and increase self-sufficiency rate;secondly,we should cooperate with major producing countries to improve their ability to cope with natural disaster risks and ensure a stable soybean supply in the context of sustainable environmental development.At the same time,it is necessary to expand the import sources,give support to the research and development of soybean varieties with various resistance traits for commercial promotion.We should strengthen agricultural cooperation with other countries such as Russia and Ukraine and increase global supply in the international market,diversify soybean imports and diversify risks.
作者
胡欣然
张玉梅
陈志钢
HU Xinran;ZHANG Yumei;CHEN Kevin
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期35-43,187,188,共11页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“重大冲击和变化对中国-全球农业影响模拟模型的研究和开发”(71761147004)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目“农业科技走出去协同创新与集成示范研究”(CAAS-XTCX2016020)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2021ZK01)。
关键词
大豆
风险
全球农产品局部均衡模型
政策模拟
soybean
risk
the global agricultural commodities partial equilibrium model
policy simulation
