摘要
针对进度计划中工作个数众多以及持续时间常呈现不同的随机分布特征,综合分析了正态分布、0-1分布和均匀分布3种分布特征相混合的情形下工期的确定问题,并从概率论的角度对完工保证率进行了分析。考虑上述3种分布特征情形,建立了工期与保证率之间的函数关系模型,并运用蒙特卡罗模拟进行仿真运算,得出了各工期的保证率。最后通过案例模拟结果,验证了模型的有效性和正确性。
Exploring the optimization of project progress in stochastic environment has a positive effect on the smooth implementation of the project.The duration of each work in the schedule is often presented with different random distribution characteristics. This paper an- alyzes the problem of the construction period of the normal distribution, the 0--1 distribu- tion and the uniform distribution of the distribution characteristics.From the perspective of probability theory, the guarantee rate of completion is analyzed.Through the construction of the three distribution characteristics of the duration and completion of the relationship be- tween the guarantee rate, and the use of Monte Carlo simulation simulation operations, the completion of the duration of the guarantee rate.
作者
彭军龙
汤奇
PENG Jun-long TANG Qi(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410004, China)
出处
《长沙理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第3期68-72,共5页
Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2015JJ2004)
关键词
进度优化
随机性
概率分布
蒙特卡罗模拟
保证率
progress optimization
random distribution
monte carlo simulation
guarantee rate
