摘要
基于可靠性的设计方法针对管道实际失效形式,对不同极限状态的荷载和抗力等不确定因素进行定量分析,确保管道安全可靠。全生命周期费用的比选可权衡管道耗材、施工、运行维护及失效后果,在保证安全的前提下,实现管道经济性最优。针对管径273 mm的某天然气管道,首次采用基于可靠性的设计方法进行钢管壁厚设计。利用调研得到的管道材料、施工及运维等不确定参数,计算目标可靠度下的临界壁厚;根据规格壁厚的规定,分别对5.2 mm、5.6 mm、6.4 mm及7.1 mm壁厚方案的全生命周期费用进行定量计算分析。结果显示:5.2 mm方案的建设期和运营期费用最低,但失效概率大导致其潜在损失费用明显高于其他方案;6.4 mm方案的全生命周期费用最低,30年总费用比5.2 mm方案低0.51%。基于管道安全可靠性和经济适用性的综合考虑,推荐采用壁厚6.4 mm方案。
The reliability-based design method can be used to analyze quantitatively the uncertainty factors at different ultimate limit states （e.g. load and resistance） in the actual failure mode of pipelines, so as ,to guarantee the safety and reliability of pipelines. Based on life-cycle cost comparison, the pipe material, construction, operation, maintenance and failure consequences can be balanced so as to realize the optimal pipeline economy while the pipeline is kept safe. For a certain natural gas pipeline with the diameter of 273 mm, the wall thickness was designed by using the reliability-based design method for the first time. The critical wall thickness corresponding to the target reliability was calculated by the uncertainty parameters （e.g. pipe material, construction and operational maintenance） which were acquired by means of survey and study. According to the standard wall thickness in design code, the life-cycle cost was quantitatively calculated and analyzed for the schemes with wall thickness of 5.2 mm, 5.6 mm, 6.4 mm and 7.1 mm, respectively. It is indicated that the scheme with the wall thickness of 5.2 mm is the lowest in construction and operation costs while its potential loss cost is much higher than the other schemes due to its high failure probability. The 6.4 mm scheme is the lowest in life-cycle cost and its total cost in 30 years is 0.51% lower than that of 5.2 mm scheme. When safe reliability and economic applicability are taken into consideration comprehensively, it is recommended to adopt the scheme with wall thickness of 6.4 mm.
作者
周亚薇
张金源
张振永
ZHOU Yawei ZHANG Jinyuan ZHANG Zhenyong(China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co. Ltd. （Engineering)
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第9期1071-1077,共7页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目"第三代大输量天然气管道工程关键技术研究"
2012E-2801-01
关键词
可靠性
临界壁厚
全生命周期
潜在损失费用
reliability, critical wall thickness, life cycle, potential loss cost
