摘要
中国近年正面临区域非对称贸易方式转型,表现为东部省份加工贸易比重由升到降,而中西部省份显著上升,这一转型对各地就业与收入等带来了重要影响。本文的理论模型分析了各地劳动力工资、土地、交通运输、税收成本差异对企业贸易方式选择的影响,并利用2006—2015年28个省份短面板数据,控制人口密度、教育水平、贸易开放度等基本面变量进行实证研究发现,从全国整体来看,制造业工资成本、税收成本对各省份加工贸易比重的负向影响,及表征内生趋势性的贸易开放度对各省份加工贸易比重的倒U型非线性影响十分显著。中西部省份加工贸易发展对于低工资、低税收的依赖则更加严重,而贸易开放度则对中西部地区加工贸易比重呈正向线性影响。不同地区政府应针对各自贸易方式转型的阶段特点做好差别性就业保障工作。
China was experiencing a process of regional-unbalanced transformation in trade pattern transshipment in recent years, which is manifested as the fall of processing trade＇s share among eastern provinces and the opposite trend shown in middle and western provinces. A simple theoretical model analyzed the differences of labor cost, transport cost, land cost and tax cost brought to the trade pattern structure of different provinces, and the paper used short panel data of 28 province from 2006-2015 to find that labor cost and tax cost are 2 most significant facts that drive down single province＇s processing trade ratio, and the ＂ Inverted U＂ shaped influence from trade openness which manifests the inner trend are also important driving power. What＇s more, China ment middle and western provinces＇ processing trade average level. Governments in eastern/middle ration rely on low labor cost and tax cost much more than and western are supposed to provide necessary employsecurity according to their own stage in trade pattern reformation.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期79-88,共10页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社科基金青年项目<"一带一路"战略下中国低端制造业产能输出可行性研究>(16CJL043)阶段性成果
关键词
贸易方式
成本冲击
内生趋势
产业结构
Trade pattern Cost shocks Endogenous trend Industry structure
