摘要
以汶川县七盘沟泥石流为研究对象,综合灾害环境选择危险性评价指标,以流域划分评价单元,基于熵值法、层次分析法和灰色关联法三种赋权方法,并采用危险性多因子评价模型,设计了基于上述三种方法的危险评价流程,开展了危险评价与有效性分析试验。研究结果得到研究区泥石流危险性级别,从危险分区与泥石流淹没范围以及单位面积内滑坡面积比重可得,熵值法和层次分析法的评价结果中单位滑坡面积随着危险级别的提高而增大,其中熵值法的评价结果精度较高,层次分析法计算结果与其他方法差异较大,灰色关联法没有达到良好的梯度。实验结果表明该实验方法能有效进行七盘沟泥石流危险评价,可为泥石流灾害环境的危险评估和应急预警提供合理和有效的参考依据。
In this paper, Qipangou debris flow was selected as the research object to carry out hazard assessment and analysis experiments. First, environmental indicators of disaster risk assessment on the partial river basin units were integrated. Then, analysis hierarchy process （AHP） and gray correlation method, the influence factor weights were calculated. Meantime, a multi-factor comprehensive model was used to design a hazard assessment flow based on the three methods. Finally, hazard assessment and analysis experiments were carried out. The research results show that debris flow hazard level. From hazard level, mudslides inundated area and per unit area of the landslide area proportion available, the evaluation results of the entropy value method and AHP in landslide area unit increase with the increase of level of risk. The evaluation results accuracy of entropy value method is higher, AHP is quite different from other methods, gray correlation method does not achieve a good gradient. The proposed method is effective on the aspect of hazard assessment, which can provide important and timely reference for emergency decision and early warning management of debris flow disasters.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2017年第1期22-29,61,共9页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271389)
国家自然科学基金项目(41201434)
四川省应急测绘与防灾减灾工程技术研究中心重点开放基金(J2014ZC17)
四川省应急测绘与防灾减灾工程技术研究中心开放基金资助项目(K2014B016)
关键词
熵值法
层次分析法
灰色关联法
七盘沟泥石流
危险性评价
entropy method
analysis hierarchy process
gray correlation method
Qipangou debris flow
hazard assessment
