摘要
文章基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)6个调查时点的农村微观截面数据,利用Probit和Logit方法,从夫妻单方流动和共同流动两个方面分析农村人口流动对离婚率的影响。在城乡人口大规模流动的背景下,农村人口流动对离婚率存在正向影响。在夫妻共同流动的情况下,流动者再婚概率增加,离婚的可能性加大;而在夫妻单方流动的情况下,流动者还面临再婚搜寻成本降低和当前婚姻收益减小等状况,从而造成婚姻稳定性下降、离婚概率上升。研究结果显示,夫妻共同或单方流动都显著提高了离婚概率。可见,在城乡二元社会结构下,流动人口婚姻稳定性下降,由此造成的对家庭和社会的负面影响应引起全社会的高度关注。
Based on CHNS' six survey periods of rural micro cross-section data,this paper analyses the rural mobility's influence on the divorce rate in the view of separte mobility and joint mobility of the couple by using Probit and Logit methods.In the context of large-scale movement of population from rural to urban areas,rural mobility has a positive effect on the divorce rate.In the case of joint mobility,the migrant's probability of re-marriage increases while the possibility of divorce raises.However,in the case of separate mobility,the migrants face cost decreasing of re-marriage's searching and benefits reducing of current marriage,which make the decline of marital stability and the increase of the probability of divorce.The research results show that hoth cases have significantly increased the probability of divorce.It is thus obvious that,under the dual social structure of urban and rural areas,not only is the migrant's marriage stability worrying,but also this phenomenon has a negative impact on their family and society.This issue should be highly concerned by the whole society.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期104-112,128,共9页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
