摘要
本文基于全国农村固定观察点村级跟踪调查数据分析了2003～2015年劳动力流动对中国村庄离婚率的影响。考虑到村庄离婚率为受限被解释变量,为了得到一致估计,本文分别构建了Tobit模型和两部模型进行比较分析。结果表明,劳动力流动特别是劳动力流出会显著提高村庄离婚率;相比于劳动力流出到村外县内,流出到县外省内劳动力的比例越高,村庄离婚率越低;村庄离婚率有明显的地域差异,东北地区、西部地区村庄离婚率显著高于中部地区;另外,村庄人均纯收入、纯务农户数占比、高中及以上学历劳动力占比、性别比等因素对村庄离婚率的影响不容忽视。因此,城镇化背景下农村劳动力流动导致村庄离婚率上升及由此可能对家庭和社会产生的负面影响值得关注。
Using tracking survey data of China＇s Rural Fixed Observation Points from 2003 to 2015, this article investigates the effect of labor mobility on rural divorce rate from two aspects, namely, the composition and space distance of labor mobility. The study finds that labor mobility, especially labor outflow, can significantly hurt rural family marriage stability and increase the divorce rate. Moreover, the shorter distance the labor outflow, the higher the divorce rate in villages. With the increase in flow distance, the divorce rate in vii/ages decreases. It also finds variations in the divorce rate in rural areas in different regions. Compared with the central region of China, the divorce rates in the northeast and western regions are significantly higher. In addition, factors such as per capita net income, the proportion of pure agricultural households, the proportion of labor force with a high school or above diploma and the sex ratio, cannot be ignored. Therefore, in the process of urbanization and labor migration, the increase in rural divorce rate and other negative effects on rural families and society are worthy of further consideration.
作者
刘彬彬
崔菲菲
史清华
Liu Binbin;Cui Feifei;Shi Qinghua
出处
《中国农村经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期71-92,共22页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"城镇化背景下劳动力转移与村庄秩序问题研究"(编号:71773076)
"中国农村贫困成分的识别
分解及其改变的路径研究"(编号:71673186)
"农村要素市场改革对中国经济增长的影响研究"(编号:71603154)
上海国际金融与经济研究院的资助与支持
关键词
农村劳动力流动
流动空间距离
村庄粗离婚率
Rural Labor Mobility
Space Distance of Labor Mobility
Crude Divorce Rate in Village
