摘要
中国能源需求对外依存度正在显著提升,保持能源进口贸易联系的稳定性已经成为关系国家能源安全的一项主要内容。本文基于生存分析模型与Cox比例风险模型,选取中国1992—2012年54种HS6分位能源产品进口数据,对能源进口贸易持续期及其影响因素进行实证研究。实证结果表明:由于需求与产品因素、国家因素、贸易因素等综合作用的结果,中国能源进口贸易联系持续期整体较短,与北关、中东及北非地区的贸易持续期长于亚洲、欧洲地区。
So far, China＇s energy import dependence significantly rises, so maintaining the stability of energy importing relationship has become one of the key issues regarding national energy security strategy. Based on Kaplan-Meier and Cox＇s Proportional Hazard Model, 54 species of HS6 digit energy products selected in 1992--2012, this paper mainly and empirically focuses on the duration of energy imports and the explanations. The results showed that China＇s energy import trade was of short duration entirely, and the duration with North America, Middle-East and North Africa was relatively longer than that with Asia and Europe, which could be comprehensively explained by the factors of demands and product, national differences, trade, etc.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期109-120,共12页
Finance & Trade Economics
关键词
能源进口
贸易联系
持续期
生存分析模型
Energy Imports, Trading Relationship, Duration, Survival Analyzing Model
