摘要
国际贸易环境不确定性及其导致的贸易风险形成日益严重的贸易壁垒,采用互联网技术,可提高企业信息搜寻效率,改善跨国信息不对称约束,增强对国际贸易不确定及其风险的预判与提早规避能力,进而降低出口退出风险,延长出口持续时间。本文基于2001—2007年中国出口企业数据,运用适应于离散时间生存分析的Cloglog模型,对互联网影响出口持续时间的效应及机制开展实证研究,发现互联网技术的采用可获得"稳出口"作用,即显著降低出口退出风险,延长出口持续时间。通过使用PSM方法控制选择性偏误后,这一效应无论在企业层面还是在企业—目的国层面仍稳健成立。在影响渠道上,互联网的使用可通过风险匹配效应、风险分散效应与知识溢出效应三大机制降低出口退出风险,但主要通过出口产品种类多样化、出口市场多元化等风险分散渠道,对冲特定目的国市场的不确定性冲击,实现"软着陆",进而规避出口退出风险,延长出口持续时间。
Uncertainty in international environment has become a new important form of trade barrier.However,with the adoption of Internet firms can improve their efficiency in searching for information,reduce cross-border information asymmetries,and enhance their ability to reduce uncertainty and risks in trade,which allow them to survive longer in international markets.This paper employed the discrete-time Cloglog model to empirically analyze the impact of Internet access on export duration.Using a panel of Chinese industrial enterprises combined with transaction-level data from Chinese customs during the period2001-2007,this paper finds that the adoption of Internet technology significantly reduces the risk of exit from international markets and extends firms’export duration.The results remain robust to potential selection bias,which are under control for using Propensity Score Matching techniques.The mechanisms behind these results show that the adoption of Internet reduces trade exit through risk matching effect,risk diversification effect,and knowledge spillover effect.The risk diversification effect,including product and destination market diversification,plays the most important role in weakening the impact of uncertainty shocks in some foreign market,hence reducing trade exit and extending export duration.
作者
胡馨月
宋学印
陈晓华
HU Xinyue;SONG Xueyin;CHEN Xiaohua
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期62-77,共16页
Journal of International Trade
基金
浙江省社会科学基金重点项目“基于E—全球化优势的浙江省出口增长动力转换与支撑体系研究”(18NDJC001Z)
教育部人文社会科学青年项目“全球互联网发展与进口驱动型创新研究:多元路径与中国证据”(18YJC790051)
浙江省自然科学基金“基于互联网优势的进口驱动型创新:传导机制识别与浙江对策研究”(LQ19G020011)
浙江省自然科学基金重点项目“资源错配与中国制造业二元技术蛙跳:演进机理、约束机制与优化路径”(LZ21G030003)
