摘要
以Logit模型为基础,选择安全性、快速性、方便性、经济性、舒适性和准时性为衡量指标,构建效用函数,通过对大同至太原间既有的高速公路、民航和普速铁路3种交通方式的出行调查和相关指标赋值,利用极大似然估计法对模型参数进行标定,然后利用模型对普速铁路进行单因素影响分析。最后针对利用既有韩原线和新建客运专线2种情况分别测算分担率,提出提高列车旅行速度、压缩旅客在途时间为铁路提高市场份额的重要途径。
Based on Logit model, taking safety, rapidity, convenience, economy, comfort and punctuality as measure indicators, the utility function was established. Through the traveling investigation and relative index assignment of 3 traffic modes on Datong-Taiyuan section including high-speed railway, civil aviation and common-speed railway, this paper makes calibration on the Logit model parameter by using maximum likelihood estimation （ MLE ） method, and makes analysis on the single factor influence of common-speed railway by using the model. In the end, targeting with 2 conditions of using existing Hanjialing-Yuanping line and newly constructing DPL, the paper makes calculation on the share ratio of the 2 conditions respectively, the results show that the important approaches of railway increasing market share are increasing traln traveling speed and shortening passenger＇s transit time.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2015年第4期18-21,50,共5页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
客流分担率
LOGIT模型
效用函数
敏感性
Share Ratio Of Passenger Flow
Logit Model
Utility Function
Sensibility
