摘要
旅客出行选择行为的研究,对了解旅客的实际出行需求状况,科学地制定客运专线运输组织模式具有重要的参考价值。本文在考虑影响旅客出行选择行为的各种因素的基础上,模拟了旅客出行的选择过程。利用非集计方法,构造了旅客出发时刻和运输方式选择行为的双层巢式逻辑决策模型,并对模型参数的估计方法进行分析。在大量问卷调查基础上,收集了石太客运专线旅客出行选择行为的叙述性偏好和显示性偏好数据,并对数据进行深层次的挖掘工作。利用最大似然法,对模型的上下选择层的参数进行估计。根据回归得到的参数,分析了当城际之间的客运通道引入客运专线时,旅客的个人社会经济因素、时间因素、运输方式等属性对旅客出行选择行为的影响。
Studying the travel choice behavior can be helpful to understand the actual travel demand status of passengers, which has important reference value to constitute the transportation organization pattern. Considering various impact factors to the travel choice behavior of passengers, this paper simulates the passenger travel choice process. Disaggregate methods are utilized in this paper to formulate the departure time and transportation mode double class Nested Logic models, and then the arithmetic of the model is analyzed. Through a great deal of questionnaire survey, and by collecting stated preference and revealed preference data about passenger travel choice behavior for the Shijiazhuang-Taiyuan Dedicated Passenger Railway Line. This paper utilizes the maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of the choice model. Finally, by using the regress parameter, this paper analyses how the personal social economic factor, time factor and transportation mode attribute affect the travel choice behavior of passengers when a dedicated passenger railway line is inducted in intercity passenger passage.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期8-12,共5页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2005K003-C(X))
关键词
出行选择行为
最大似然法
客运专线
巢式逻辑模型
travel choice behavior
maximum likelihood
dedicated passenger railway line
nested logic model
