摘要
目的 通过日本原爆人群的辐射致白血病危险估算中国人群白血病的超额相对危险（ERR）值,探讨合适的人群危险转移方法.方法 危险计算使用BEIRⅦ辐射致癌计算模型及人群危险转移模型,中国人群率采用《2012中国肿瘤登记年报》中2009年中国肿瘤基线发病率.通过不同国家人群率的比较,来调整权重系数.结果 得到经人群转移后的中国人群白血病ERR值;对中国人群男性拟定相加模型权重系数为0.2、相乘模型为0.8,对女性相加模型权重系数为0.15、相乘模型为0.85.结论 在辐射致白血病危险人群转移中从总体考虑调整权重系数,得到适于估算中国人群辐射致白血病危险的人群ERR值.应用新的中国人群发病率将辐射致白血病危险直接从日本人群转移到中国人群,得出适于中国人群的辐射致白血病危险的转移方法.
Objective To estimate the averaged excess relative risk（ERR） in Chinese population based on the radiogenic cancer risk of leukemia in Japanese atomic bomb survivor cohort,and to discuss proper method suitable for risk transfer between populations.Methods Based on BEIR Ⅶ radiogenic cancer model and population transfer model,and the 2009 Chinese leukemia baseline rates given in 2012 Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report,comparison was made of population incidences in seveal countries to adjust the weighting factors.Results The ERR of three subtypes of leukemia as a whole was obtained,and the weighting factors for risk transfer model was assumed.The additive factor for male was 0.2,and the multiplicative factor was 0.8,while the additive factor for female was 0.15,and the multiplicative factor was 0.85.Conclusions For the risk transfer between populations,weighting factor was adjusted as a whole to obtain the ERR value for estimating the risk to Chinese population.The risk transfer method suitable for Chinese population was obtained by using the incidence rate available for Chinese population to directly transfer radiation-induced leukemia risk to Chinese from Japanese.
出处
《中华放射医学与防护杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期134-138,共5页
Chinese Journal of Radiological Medicine and Protection
