摘要
以2005—2010年长株潭城市群产业碳排放的有关数据为基础,基于灰色系统理论,对长株潭城市群2005—2030年的产业碳排放进行了模拟和预测,并设定4种情景,对长株潭城市群2011—2030年产业碳排放进行了情景分析。研究结果表明:2010—2030年,长株潭城市群如果保持2010年以前的产业结构、能源结构不变,其产业碳排放量将以年均15.99%的增长速度快速上升;在1%的显著性水平上,碳排放、人均GDP、人口、单位GDP能耗强度、碳排放强度之间存在着双向因果关系;长株潭城市群产业碳排放与体现经济增长的人均GDP之间具有长期均衡关系;BAU、节能、低碳和强化低碳情景下,长株潭城市群产业碳排放、人均GDP均呈上升趋势。
Based on the data of industrial carbon emissions in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomerations during 2005 to 2010, simulates and forecasts industrial carbon emissions in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2030 by grey system theory, and analyzes the industrial carbon emissions under four set scenarios from 2011 to 2030. The results indicate that： if the city group keeps the industrial structure before 2010 and the energy structure maintains unchanged from 2010 to 2030, the industrial carbon emissions will increase at an annual growth rate of 15.99%. On the significant level of 1%, there exists a bidirectional cause-effect relationship between carbon emission, GDP per capita, population, per unit GDP energy intensity and the carbon emission intensity; There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Chang-Zhu-Tan industrial carbon emission and economic growth-indicated per capita GDP. Under the situation of BAU, energy saving, lowcarbon and stressed low-carbon, both the industrial carbon emissions and GDP per capita of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomerations are increasing.
出处
《湖南工业大学学报》
2014年第5期98-104,共7页
Journal of Hunan University of Technology
基金
中国清洁发展机制基金资助项目(10C0612)
关键词
长株潭城市群
碳排放
灰色计量经济学模型
情景分析
Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomerations
carbon emissions
gray econometric model
scenario analysis
