摘要
为践行中国政府到2020年的减排承诺,"十三五"期间区域碳排放预测及碳减排模式研究成为关注的焦点。文章构建拓展的IPAT模型预测BAU、CP、LC三种社会经济发展情景下的能源消费与CO_2排放趋势,进而选定"十三五"期间河南省的碳减排路径。研究表明,2000年以来河南省能源消费及CO_2排放总量与人均量均不断攀升。河南省能源消费与CO_2排放的预测量在三种情景下呈现不同的能源与部门结构特点,不同情景下的碳减排任务完成难度有所差异,LC情景下的低碳模式有助于实现"十三五"期间的碳减排目标。河南省的低碳发展本质上需要经济发展方式的转变。
China has promised to reduce its carbon intensity( CO_2 per unit of GDP) by 40%- 45% compared with 2005 levels until2020. Chinese provincial governments are obliged to carry out the energy-saving and emission-reduction work to achieve the national target. Therefore,a growing body of research is focusing on the projection of regional CO_2 emissions and the exploration of its carbonreduction path during the Thirteenth Five Year Plan Period. However,the previous studies calculated CO_2 emissions by different accounting scopes,and gave insufficient emphasis on the interaction between the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure,as well as the increasement of energy efficiency. Meanwhile,the previous studies inadequately demonstrated the feasibility of carbon-reduction path. Given this situation,the paper focused on Henan Province,which had higher amount of CO_2 emissions,more stressful of carbon reduction and more difficult to adjust the industrial and energy structure than most provinces in China. The energy demand and CO_2 emissions were calculated based on the energy consumption statistics caliber published by National Bureau of Statistics. The extended IPAT model was constructed to project the CO_2 emissions until 2020 with three scenarios such as business-as-usual( BAU) scenario,current-policy( CP) scenario,and low-carbon( LC) scenario. And then the carbon-reduction path during the Thirteenth Five Year Plan Period was selected. The results show that the total and per capital energy consumption and CO_2 emissions in Henan Province have continually rising since 2000. The changing trend of sectoral energy consumption and CO_2 emissions is similar,while sectoral CO_2 emissions varies in different primary energy including coal,crude oil and nature gas. The projection of energy consumption and CO_2 emissions exhibits different sectoral structure and energy structure under three scenarios. And there are differences in the implementation of carbon-reduction missions for each scenario,of which the low-carb
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第S2期29-32,共4页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
河南省哲学社科规划办项目"河南省低碳生态新型城镇化的发展路径研究"(编号:2014CJJ065)
河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目"新型城镇化战略下郑汴都市区碳排放结构演化与优化调控研究"(编号:2014-ZD-021)
河南大学科研基金项目"城市化新能源CO2排放结构化与优调控研究"(编号:2013YBZR003)
关键词
产业结构
能源结构
能源强度
CO2排放
十三五
河南省
industrial structure
energy structure
energy intensity
CO2 emissions
Thirteenth Five Year Plan
Henan Province
