摘要
以2014-2016年湖南7个大型上市企业碳排放的有关数据为基础,基于灰色系统理论,对2014-2025年7个企业的碳排放量进行模拟和预测,并设定3种情景对企业未来碳排放量进行情景分析。研究结果表明:2014-2025年,保持原有发展方式不变,WK、JZT、HL、H、XD企业的碳排放量将呈上升的趋势,而ZL、BD企业的碳排放量将呈下降的趋势。不同行业企业碳排放影响因素及其影响大小各不相同,企业总资产对金属制品业、医药制造业的碳排放影响较大;企业人数对专用设备制造业、金属制品业、煤炭发电力业的影响较大;人均营业额对电力热力生产及供应业、电气机械和器材制造业、专用设备制造业影响较大;碳排放强度对金属制品业、医药制造业、电气机械和器材制造业、电力热力生产及供应业的影响较大。2014-2025年,在节能情景下,7个企业碳排放与BAU相比减少了2.0%到12.3%不等;在低碳情景下,7个企业碳排放与BAU相比减少了4.0%到29.0%不等。
With the collected data of carbon emissions of seven large listed companies in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2016,and based on the grey system theory,a simulation and prediction have been made of the carbon emissions of seven large listed companies in 2014—2025,with three scenarios set to analyze the future carbon emissions of enterprises.The results show that,from 2014 to 2025,with the original development mode remaining unchanged,the carbon emissions of WK,JZT,HL,H,XD companies show an upward trend,while those of ZL,BD companies show a downward trend.Due to the difference of the influencing factors and influencing degrees of carbon emissions of enterprises in different industries,the total assets of enterprises exert a greater impact on carbon emissions of metal products industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry;the number of enterprises has a greater impact on special equipment manufacturing industry,metal products industry and coal power generation industry.The per capita turnover has a great influence on power and heat production and supply industry,electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and special equipment manufacturing industry;the carbon emission intensity has a great influence on metal products industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipmentmanufacturing industry, power and heat production and supply industry. In the energy-saving scenario of 2014—2025,compared with BAU, the carbon emissions of seven enterprises decrease by 2.0% to 12.3%, while in the low-carbonscenario, the carbon emissions of seven enterprises decrease by 4.0% to 29.0%.
作者
李春潇
张陶新
张健
LI Chunxiao;ZHANG Taoxin;ZHANG Jian(College of Urban and Environment,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China)
出处
《湖南工业大学学报》
2020年第4期71-77,共7页
Journal of Hunan University of Technology
关键词
碳排放
湖南大型上市企业
灰色计量经济学模型
情景分析
carbon emissions
large listed enterprises in Hunan Province
gray econometric model
scenario analysis
